Does anyone else have $WBDstock in their portfolio ?

Shares fell 5% yesterday after a major shareholder sold a stake for over $1 billion. The price is still moving up and down, but in the long run it's going more sideways. I've had $WBD in my portfolio for a while because I was expecting a change and believed the business would change, but it hasn't and I don't think we'll see it.

Amazon.com Inc founder and chairman Jeff Bezos sold nearly $737 million worth of the company's stock last week, a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission showed Tuesday.

Bezos sold about 3.3 million shares for $736.7 million under a 10b5-1 trading plan adopted earlier this year.

Real estate investment trust VICI Properties entered 2025 with solid results that confirm its stable business model and ability to grow even in a more challenging market environment. The company continues to successfully expand its portfolio not only in the traditional gaming real estate sector, but also in attractive segments such as luxury urban developments and projects on tribal lands. The first quarter was marked by growth in operating metrics, capital activity and strategic partnerships.

Underpinning VICI's performance is the predictable and stable cash flow generated from long-term triple-net leases, which help the company maintain high operating efficiencies. It is this model that allows VICI to regularly increase its adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), a key indicator of the REIT's ability to pay dividends. In the first quarter of 2025, AFFO grew 5.6% year-over-year, while revenue grew 3.4%.

How was the most recent quarter?

VICI Properties $VICI ended the first quarter of 2025 with solid growth, confirming its strong position among U.S. REITs focused on experiential real estate. Revenues rose 3.4% year-over-year to $984.2 million, despite more challenging conditions in the capital markets and slowing growth in other parts of the real estate sector. While net income fell nearly 8% year-over-year to $543.6 million, operating metrics remain robust - most notably adjusted AFFO, which rose 5.6% to $616 million, or 4.3% per share.

The decline in net income was primarily due to the change in the allowance for expected credit losses (CECL allowance), which reduced the base year-over-year. Without this one-time accounting impact, VICI's results would have been even stronger. The stability and predictability of revenues from long-term lease agreements, often tied to strong partners in the gaming and entertainment industry, continue to underpin the Company's performance. Moreover, AFFO is a key metric for investors tracking REITs' dividend yields, and its growth is a clear signal of the company's continued operational health.

VICI Properties also continued its active capital management and investment expansion. During the quarter, the company announced a $300 million mezzanine loan investment for the development of the prestigious One Beverly Hills project and then, subsequent to quarter end, provided up to $510 million for the development of a new casino and resort on tribal land in California to be operated by Red Rock Resorts. These strategic investments indicate an effort to diversify revenue beyond traditional gaming properties and engage in the growth of highly attractive real estate projects.

Financially, the Company maintains a strong liquidity position. At the end of March 2025, it had cash and equivalents of $334.3 million and an additional $624.6 million from forward share purchase agreements. Together with undrawn funds from the new $2.3 billion revolving credit facility, total liquidity was over $3.2 billion. This capital readiness allows VICI to respond quickly and flexibly to new opportunities while maintaining a stable dividend payout to shareholders.

CEO Commentary

VICI Properties CEO, Edward Pitoniakcommenting on the first quarter results, highlighted the company's continued success in building strategic partnerships and expanding its investment portfolio beyond traditional gaming properties. In particular, he highlighted the newly established collaboration with Cain International and Eldridge Industries, which was solidified by a $300 million mezzanine investment in One Beverly Hills, a large-scale, luxury, mixed-use development project in California. The move, he said, is a clear demonstration of VICI's ability to allocate capital to prestigious and long-term profitable real estate assets.

Pitoniak also highlighted the significance of the agreement to provide up to US$510 million for the development of the North Fork Mono Casino & Resort, which will be developed in partnership with leading regional operator Red Rock Resorts. He noted that this is not only VICI's second investment in an Indigenous-owned territory, but also the first partnership of its kind between Red Rock Resorts and a real estate investment trust. He sees this project as a milestone that demonstrates the company's willingness to expand in areas with long-term growth potential and to work with dynamic and innovative partners.

In his closing remarks, Pitoniak highlighted the company's strong fundamentals and its ability to combine a stable revenue model based on long-term lease agreements with a proactive approach to investment opportunities. He said this combination is essential to maintaining VICI's attractiveness to investors and ensuring long-term growth in shareholder value. He says VICI is in an exceptional position - it has ample capital, quality partners and the ability to identify and execute transactions that can create shareholder value for decades.

Outlook

VICI Properties enters the remainder of fiscal 2025 with a moderately positive outlook, reflecting not only the continued stability of its revenue portfolio, but also new investment opportunities and a strong capital position. Based on first quarter results, management has raised its full year 2025 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) guidance to a range of $2.470 billion to $2.500 billion, or $2.33 to $2.36 per share. The move confirms management's confidence in the robust performance of the underlying portfolio, which is based on long-term triple-net leases that protect VICI from volatile economic cycles.

The Company's continued ability to raise and actively allocate capital is also an important part of the outlook. New transactions, such as the $300 million mezzanine investment in the One Beverly Hills project or the up to $510 million loan to build a casino on the North Fork Rancheria tribal land, demonstrate the company's growing involvement outside of the traditional gaming segment. These projects are intended to not only diversify the company's revenue, but also strengthen its long-term growth profile and ability to increase shareholder value beyond its traditional casino portfolio.

VICI is also strengthening its financial base through a proactive approach to the capital markets. In the first quarter, the company closed a new $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility and successfully placed an aggregate of $1.3 billion of investment-grade notes, refinancing a portion of its upcoming debt. These actions underscore VICI's strategy to maintain high liquidity and flexibility for new investments.

Long-term results

VICI Properties' long-term results for the period 2021 to 2024 show exceptionally dynamic growth and solid financial performance, underpinned primarily by portfolio expansion and consistent cost management. The company's total revenue has grown each year - from US$1.51 billion in 2021 to US$3.85 billion in 2024, an increase of more than 150% in three years. The biggest jump was seen in 2022, when revenues grew 72% year-over-year, largely due to large-scale acquisitions and growing revenues from the rental portfolio. In the following years, revenue growth gradually stabilised but still maintained a solid pace, e.g. in 2024 it added 6.6% compared to the previous period.

On the cost of revenues side, an extremely low and stable share of total revenues is evident, reflecting the unique structure of the triple-net lease REIT business. In 2024, cost of revenues was only $26.9 million, less than 1% of total revenues. As a result, the company was able to report an exceptionally high gross profit of over $3.82 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of over 99%. This model minimizes operating costs and maximizes profitability compared to traditional real estate operators.

Operating expenses have also remained under control. While there was an increase of nearly 29% in 2024, the absolute amount of $309 million remains low on nearly $4 billion in revenue. As a result, operating profit (EBIT) reached US$3.56 billion, a 6% increase over 2023 and confirmation of strong operating leverage. EBITDA in the same period was US$3.56 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 5% and more than doubling from 2021, demonstrating an exceptionally efficient business model.

The company's net profit in 2024 was nearly $2.68 billion, an increase of 6.6% from the previous year. Meanwhile, in 2023, the company recorded a jump in net profit growth of more than 124%, reflecting the positive impact of the expansion phase and acquisitions made in previous years. Another notable feature is the steady growth in earnings per share - which stood at $2.56 in 2024, up from $2.48 in 2023 and $1.27 in 2022. The company has also been gradually expanding its shareholder base, with the number of diluted shares increasing by around 81% between 2021 and 2024, a result of the issuance of shares to fund acquisitions, but without any impact on value dilution - EPS has still been growing steadily.

News

The year 2025 was a period of significant expansion, diversification and strengthening of VICI Properties' strategic position in the experiential real estate sector. The company continued to broaden its investment scope beyond traditional casino properties and focused on new segments that expand its growth potential. A significant step in this direction was the announcement of a strategic partnership with Cain International and its affiliate, Eldridge Industries, under which VICI invested $300 million in a mezzanine loan to develop the prestigious One Beverly Hills project. This 17.5-acre development in California includes luxury residential, hotel and commercial space and its financing reflects VICI's intention to make greater inroads into the premium urban segment.

In addition, the company expanded its footprint into the Indian gaming business, announcing an investment of up to $510 million in the construction of the new North Fork Mono Casino & Resort in California after the end of the first quarter. This project will be developed and managed by Red Rock Resorts, with whom VICI has entered into its first partnership of its kind. The investment is structured as a delayed draw term loan and represents VICI's second commitment to Indian tribal land.

Shareholder Structure

VICI Properties' shareholder structure as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 demonstrates an exceptionally high level of institutional trust that far exceeds normal market standards. Institutional investors held more than 101% of the total number of shares, a figure that reflects the presence of a significant number of short-term speculative positions as well as the strong conviction of long-term holders in the quality and stability of the company.

Vanguard Group Inc. remains the company's largest shareholder, holding more than 154 million shares as of March 31, 2025, equivalent to approximately 14.6% of the company. This nearly $5 billion position reflects the long-term confidence of one of the world's largest asset managers in the quality of VICI's portfolio and its ability to generate stable and predictable returns.

In second place is BlackRock Inc., which holds more than 110 million shares, giving it a 10.4% controlling interest in the company. With an investment in excess of $3.5 billion, VICI is one of the key real estate titles in the global giant's portfolio. BlackRock traditionally prefers dividend-stable companies with predictable cash flows, which fully fits VICI's profile as a leading player in experiential real estate.

The third largest shareholder is Capital International Investors, which held over 61 million shares as of the same date, representing a 5.8% share of the total share capital. This investment of nearly US$2 billion again highlights that the company's major shareholders include the most prominent global institutional investors who view VICI as an attractive defensive title with long-term growth potential in themed real estate.

Analysts' expectations

Based on 12-month target prices 10 analysts for VICI Properties is the average target price USD 35.42. The highest target price for VICI is 38.00 USD, while the lowest target price for VICI is 33.00 USD.

Fair Price

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⚠ Invest responsibly!

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as an investment recommendation. The authors present only the facts known to them and do not draw any conclusions or make any recommendations to the reader.

Read our Terms and Conditions

☁️ Oracle at historic highs!
Shares of Oracle $ORCL, which specializes in enterprise software, database systems and cloud services, jumped to all-time highs after the company announced it will begin generating more than $30 billion a year from a new cloud deal starting in fiscal year 2028.

According to documents filed with the SEC, the deal is expected to start generating revenue in 2028.

CEO Safra Catz has already confirmed a strong start to fiscal year 2026, with MultiCloud database revenue growing more than 100 %.

🌐 An important shift for Oracle:
The company is transforming from "a traditional database company" to a key cloud infrastructure provider, on par with AWS (Amazon) or Azure (Microsoft).

Partnerships with OpenAI and SoftBank (Project Stargate) and new AI alliances with IBM show that Oracle has a place in the technology world.

Since the beginning of the year, the company's shares have gained more than 30%!

What do you think of Oracle?

Tesla shares fell 6% on Tuesday as the electric car maker faced continued pressure after President Donald Trump hinted he might consider deporting CEO Elon Musk.

The latest drop follows Trump's comments to reporters outside the White House, where he said he would "have to look into" the potential deportation of the South African-born executive.

While investors hunt for opportunities in high-priced names like Snowflake or Nvidia, one company is quietly delivering exceptional results - while staying out of the interest of most of the market. This company combines a low valuation, a solid dividend and a transformative growth story in a hybrid of cloud and AI. It's a defensive stock in a technology coat - perfect for investors looking for more than just trendy acronyms.

While the market focuses on overblown growth stocks and companies without profitability, we have a quiet player that is already generating billions in free cash flow, rewarding shareholders while growing in segments where others have yet to promise a future. This is no speculation - just a coolly efficient business with remarkable discipline. And that's why investors often overlook it.

Top points of analysis

• P/E ~13×, EV/EBITDA 12.7× - Undervalued relative to the sector
• ROIC over 20%, FCF yield ~6.4% - superior capital efficiency
• Dividend 2.2% + buybacks = 7.8% return to shareholders
• Cloud services +43%, AI workloads in growth phase
• Strong partnerships with AWS, Azure, Google Cloud
• Fair value of $120-130 vs. current $106

Basic company profile

NetApp Inc $NTAP is an American technology company based in California, founded in 1992. The company has historically specialized in data storage and infrastructure for enterprise IT, but in recent years has undergone a major transformation toward hybrid cloud, data management, and security in the digital world.

Today, NetApp offers comprehensive solutions for storing, managing and protecting data - both in traditional data centers and in public cloud. Its services are used by thousands of organizations around the world - from banks and healthcare to manufacturing and government.

Through strategic partnerships with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud NetApp has become a key player in the cloud computing space. "cloud-native data infrastructure" - services that connect the old world of IT with the new era of AI and the cloud.

Financial performance

Fiscal 2025 - Summary

• Revenue: $6.57 billion, +5% growth
• Cloud Services: +43%, ARR $416m
• All-Flash Storage (AFF): ARR $4.1 billion, +14% growth
• GAAP net income: $1.19 billion
• Non-GAAP net income: $1.52 billion
• Operating Margin: GAAP 20%, non-GAAP 28%
• EBITDA: ~$1.52 billion
• Free cash flow: $1.34 billion (OCF $1.51 billion - CapEx $168 mil)

NetApp successfully increases profitability through growth in high-margin cloud and software services. Revenues and cash flow grow steadily without reliance on acquisition expansion.

Q4 2025 (February-April)

• Revenue: $1.73 billion (+4% y/y), beating expectations
• Cloud segment: +31%, BlueXP and Spot hybrid solutions grow double digits
• EPS (non-GAAP): $1.80 vs. expectations. $1,70
• GAAP margins: 21%, +150 bps YoY
• Q4 FCF: $442 mil

Q4 2025 results vs. expectations

➡️ NetApp beat estimates on all key fronts - revenue, profit and margin. Particularly important is the growth in cloud services, which confirms the success of the transformation strategy.

Outlook for Q1 FY26 (May-July 2025)

• Revenue: $1.6-1.75 billion
• Non-GAAP EPS: $1,55-$1,65
• Cloud ARR: 30-40% y/y growth expected
• Buyback program: $1 billion in buybacks planned over the next 12 months

➡️ NetApp confirms steady growth trend, increases margins and transforms its portfolio toward more predictable, repeatable cloud revenue.

Key Metrics

Valuation

• Forward P/E: ~13,7×
• EV/EBITDA: ~12,7×
• EV/FCF: ~15,6×
• P/S: ~3,5×

➡️ Compared to the competition (e.g. Pure Storage EV/EBITDA >30×), NetApp's valuation looks significantly sober, even though the company is delivering strong profitability and growth.

Profitability and cash flow

• ROIC: 21,4 %
• ROE: 108% (high due to efficient use of capital)
• Free cash flow: $1.34 billion per year
• FCF yield: ~6,4 %

➡️ Exceptionally high capital efficiency makes NetApp a leader among established IT companies. The high FCF yield ensures attractive returns even without valuation growth.

Debt and financial strength

• Debt/Equity: ~2,05×
• Net cash position: $362 mil
• EBITDA/Interest Coverage: >22×

➡️ Debt is manageable, cash generation strong. Company maintains room for shareholder return and growth investment.

Qualitative factors

Management and strategy

CEO George Kurian has led the company since 2015, and under his leadership NetApp has undergone a fundamental transformation from a traditional data storage manufacturer to a hybrid-cloud and software-first player. His focus on profitability, return on capital, and focused innovation has enabled growth without expansive acquisitions.

Capital allocation

• Buybacks: In the past 12 months, the company has repurchased more than $1 billion of stock
• Dividends: Steady growth, 35-40% payout ratio
• Growth Investments: Strong focus on cloud, AI workloads, data infrastructure automation
• Acquisitions: Selective (e.g. Spot.io for cloud cost optimization)

➡️ Management maintains strict discipline - return on capital takes precedence over "story" growth.

Competitive advantages

• Unique hybrid approach: NetApp combines on-premise and multi-cloud environments through a proprietary software layer (ONTAP, BlueXP)
• Strong integration with hyperscalers: As the only provider with deep integration with AWS, Azure and Google Cloud.
• Expertise in data protection: Ransomware protection, cyber-vault architecture, "post-quantum ready" encryption
• Predictable business: ARR (annual recurring revenue) growth from cloud services = more stable cash flow than traditional hardware

➡️ NetApp is not a disruptor, but a key infrastructure partner that the "cloud" often can't do without - and that puts the company in a unique position outside of a direct price war.

Dividend policy

NetApp has long combined growth strategy with a regular return to shareholders. The dividend is stable, conservatively set and supported by strong free cash flow.

• Annual dividend: $2.08 per share
• Dividend yield: ~2.0-2.3% at a price of ~$106
• Payout ratio: ~35-38% of net income
• Frequency: Quarterly payout (earliest ex-date July 3, 2025)

How to look at this as an investor?

NetApp combines A consistent dividend with massive share buybacks. In the last year, it has total shareholder return of 7.8% - excluding share price appreciation. The high FCF yield makes the dividend well sustainable even in the event of weaker growth.

➡️ The dividend in NetApp is not the main reason to buy the stock - but combined with the buybacks, it makes for a very attractive mix for long-term, return-oriented investors.

Investment scenarios

Realistic scenario

• Revenue growth: +5-6% p.a.
• FCF steady at around $1.3-1.4bn
• Valuation: P/E 13-14×
• Price Target: $115-120 (over 12-18 months)
• Conservative scenario built on continued transformation, stable margins and modest growth in cloud services.

Optimistic scenario

• Cloud segment grows >35%, AI demand accelerates
• Valuation increases to a P/E of 15-16x due to revaluation of growth profile
• FCF above $1.5B, EPS $7+
• Price Target: $130-135
• NetApp surprises the market as a "hidden winner" in AI infrastructure. A rerating similar to other cloud players is occurring.

Pessimistic scenario

• Stagnation in IT spending, decline in demand for on-prem solutions
• Cloud growth slows, margins under pressure
• Valuation falls to a P/E of 11-12×
• Price Target: $90-95
• In this scenario, market confidence in NetApp's transition to a more growth-oriented model is at risk of declining. At the same time, the company remains profitable and cash generative.

➡️ Even in the pessimistic scenario, NetApp remains a defensive position with positive cash flow and dividend - limiting downside risk.

Fair Value

Base case assumptions

• FCF (FY25): $1.34 billion
• WACC: 8 %
• FCF growth over the next 5 years: 5-6% per annum
• Perpetual growth (g): 2 %

Result of the DCF model

• Fair value per share: $120-125
• Current price: ~$106
• ➡️ Shares traded with at a discount of 10-15% to fair value even in a conservative scenario.

Sensitivity analysis (WACC vs. FCF growth)

➡️ With slightly more aggressive assumptions (lower WACC or higher growth), fair value easily moves above $130.

While not a fast-growing disruptor, NetApp stands out with a combination of stability, capital efficiency and cash flow. The valuation doesn't look extremely cheap at first glance - but in the context of returns and growth, the company has a distinct margin of safety.

Comparison with competitors

What does this imply?

• Valuation: NetApp is significantly cheaper than the more growth-oriented Pure Storage, but offers similar or higher velocity in the core cloud segment.
• Capital Efficiency: NetApp dominates in ROIC - effectively turning every dollar invested into profit.
• Cash flow: Generates significantly higher free cash flow compared to competitors, which supports dividends and buybacks.
• Dividend yield: The only growth player that combines cloud transformation with a stable dividend.

➡️ Ratio quality/growth/price NetApp is one of the most balanced choices in the enterprise segment - with no inflated valuations or weak profitability.

Growth potential and expansion

1. Cloud Services

NetApp profiles itself as data infrastructure for a cloud-first world. Its platforms (e.g., BlueXP, Spot.io, Cloud Volumes) enable businesses to manage data across AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud.
➡️ Cloud ARR grew by +43% Y/Y and accounts for over 400M. USD 400 USD with a rapid growth trajectory.

2. AI workloads and automation

NetApp services enable companies to store, replicate, and protect training data for AI models.
➡️ The company is developing Storage solutions optimized for GPU clusters and inference farms, opening up new markets from the financial sector to healthcare.

3. Automation and hybrid management

NetApp is developing BlueXP platform for unified data management in on-premise and multicloud environments - with a focus on compliance, protection and cost optimization.
➡️ This "middleware" approach makes the company indispensable to many IT teams.

4. Geographic expansion

The firm is strengthening its position outside the U.S. - growth in EMEA and APAC regions (especially India and Japan) is in double digits, cloud adoption here is only accelerating.

➡️ NetApp is not just defending its position in enterprise IT - it is actively building a new growth trajectory in cloud, AI and automation. This shift is not yet fully appreciated by the market.

NetApp SWOT analysis

Strengths

• High capital efficiency (ROIC ~21%)
• Stable and growing free cash flow
• Strong partnership with hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud)
• Broad portfolio of hybrid and cloud solutions
• Disciplined capital allocation, low debt

Weaknesses

• Significant exposure to corporate IT budgets
• More traditional brand perception - market does not yet fully reflect the cloud shift
• Lower growth than smaller disruptors (e.g. Pure Storage)

Opportunities

• Growth in demand for AI-ready storage solutions
• Expansion of cloud services and ARR models
• Geographic growth outside the US (India, APAC)
• Potential acquisitions or partnerships with larger players in the AI segment

Threats

• Intense competition in data storage (Pure, Dell, HPE)
• Hyperscalers may expand their own service offerings
• Macroeconomic slowdown and reduction in IT budgets
• Technological changes (e.g. new types of storage)

➡️ Overall, NetApp offers A balance between stability and growth potentialwith the main threats being cyclical rather than structural.

Conclusion

NetApp is an undervalued hybrid cloud leader that combines quality cash flow, conservative management, and a growth story in data infrastructure for the AI world.

But that's not the whole story...

• P/E below 14×, yet ROIC above 20% and steady growth - a quality/price ratio that is rare in the technology sector.
• The company holds above-average margins over the long termstrong balance sheet and a stable return to shareholders (dividend + buyback = ~8% per year).
• Cloud and AI segments are growing at double digitsbut the market is still valuing them conservatively - and that's where the asymmetry lies.

Unlike many overhyped NetApp names makes money today, not tomorrow. And it's doing so with minimal debt, investment discipline and a strong anchor in its corporate infrastructure.

Investment Conclusion

NetApp $NTAP deserves a spot on every investor's watchlist looking for :

• Defensive growth in the technology sector,
• quality with undervaluation,
• returns without betting on future disruptive visions.

Priced around $106, this is a position with an attractive return/risk ratio - with minimal fundamental weakness.

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⚠ Invest responsibly!

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and does not serve as an investment recommendation. The authors present only the facts known to them and do not draw any conclusions or recommendations for the reader.

Read our Terms and Conditions

A lot of US stocks have already regained their ATH and it looks like the rise will continue. Personally, I don't buy much anymore because I find it expensive. The exception for me is European stocks, so I will continue to overbuy $NVO.

What about you? What stocks do you still find cheap or fairly valued?

Apple must face a lawsuit by the US Justice Department accusing the iPhone maker of illegally dominating the US smartphone market, a judge ruled on Monday.

U.S. District Judge Julien Neals in Newark, New Jersey, denied Apple's motion to dismiss a lawsuit accusing the company of using restrictions against third-party app and device developers to prevent users from switching to competitors and illegally dominating the market.

Fiscal 2025 brought a hard landing for the Nike brand. The global leader in athletic apparel and footwear faced slowing demand, structural challenges in digital distribution, and margin pressure, which weighed heavily on fourth quarter and full year results. Total annual revenue fell 10% to $46.3 billion, with the fourth quarter seeing an even sharper 12% decline. While the company continued to generate positive cash flow and maintain profitability, the 86% decline in net income in the quarter signals that a business model transformation and new strategy will be necessary to return to past performance.

In response to these results, management has initiated a major internal reorganization under the "Win Now" initiative to help streamline operations and strengthen the relationship with the consumer. A key element of the new strategy is the "Sport Offense" concept, which emphasizes the brand's sporting DNA, expanded product portfolio and stronger connections with the sports communities. At the same time, the company continues to invest in brand marketing, Olympic campaigns and sustainability, while strengthening return on capital through dividends and share buybacks. Fiscal year 2026 thus becomes a watershed period for Nike that will determine the future direction of this iconic brand.

How was the last quarter?

Nike $NKE ended fiscal year 2025 with a very weak fourth quarter, marked by a significant year-over-year decline in sales, weak consumer demand, and increasing pressure on margins. Total sales were $11.1 billion, down 12% year-over-year on a reported basis and down 11% when adjusted for currency effects. This result was primarily negatively impacted by a significant decline in Nike sales across all regions, with direct-to-consumer (Nike Direct) sales suffering the most, down 14% year-on-year to USD 4.4 billion. The Nike Brand Digital segment took the biggest hit, falling by a full 26%, signalling structural problems in online distribution and a deterioration in the effectiveness of marketing investments. Nike-owned stores contributed a modest 2% growth, but failed to offset the widespread online losses.

Wholesale sales fell 9% year-on-year to USD 6.4 billion, reflecting weakening demand from retail partners. The other brand in the group, Converse, reported a 26% year-on-year decline, confirming the brand's positioning issues and its lesser relevance in a changing retail environment. In addition, the decline in sales translated into a significant deterioration in gross margin, which declined 440 basis points year-on-year to 40.3%, mainly due to higher discounts, changes in the distribution mix and pressure on inventory.

Selling and administrative expenses rose only 1% to $4.1 billion, but there was a shift within this category, with brand promotion and sports marketing expenses up 15%, which, while confirming continued investment in branding, weighed on operating profitability. Operating overhead was down 3% year-on-year, driven by a comparative base that included prior year restructuring costs and lower staff costs. The tax rate more than doubled compared to last year (from 13.1% to 33.6%), resulting in a significant hit to net profit.

CEO comment

NIKE CEO, Elliott Hillidentified fiscal year 2025 as a transition period during which the company has embarked on a series of transformational steps to adapt to changing global market conditions and reignite growth. Commenting on the fourth quarter results, he acknowledged that while the results were in line with internal expectations, they were not in line with Nike's ambitions as a global leader in sports fashion and footwear. He stressed, however, that the company had taken concrete steps under its "Win Now" initiative to streamline operations, improve offerings and strengthen consumer relationships.

Hill said that the entry into the new fiscal year will be characterised by a rigorous implementation of the "Sport Offense" strategy to restore growth by strengthening key sports categories, building a complete product portfolio and deepening customers' emotional connection to the brand. This strategy is intended to lead not only to a recovery in sales trends, but also to a long-term stabilization of margins and a return to the company's growth profile. According to Hill, the success of this transformation will depend on the Nike team's ability to respond operationally to current challenges while consistently delivering on the brand's long-term vision as a global innovator and leader in the world of sport and style.

Outlook

Nike enters fiscal 2026 knowing that it faces a challenging environment, but with a clear strategy to restore growth and strengthen its position in the global marketplace. After a 10% decline in full-year 2025 sales and a 12% decline in the fourth quarter, the company expects the biggest impacts of its "Win Now" transformation initiative to have worn off and the next period to bring a gradual recovery. Management views fiscal 2026 as key to stabilizing revenues, improving margins and returning to sustainable growth through targeted investments in the product portfolio, digital platforms and strengthening brand identity through sports marketing.

The company has not yet disclosed specific near-term outlooks, but CFO Matthew Friend expressed confidence that Nike has a strong foundation to navigate the turbulent environment through disciplined cost management and flexibility in its manufacturing and supply chain.

Long-term results

Nike's performance over the past four fiscal years shows the steady, albeit cyclically volatile, performance typical of global consumer brands with broad appeal. The company has grown annually, with total revenue increasing from $44.5 billion to more than $51.2 billion between 2021 and 2023. This growth was driven by both strong demand for Nike products in all regions and robust sales in the digital and direct-to-consumer channels.

Fiscal year 2024, ending May 31, brought stagnation, with sales reaching $51.36 billion, virtually flat with the previous year. However, despite a slight 0.3% growth in sales, Nike managed to improve profitability. Gross profit rose by 2.7% to almost USD 22.9 billion and operating profit grew more strongly, by more than 32% to USD 6.69 billion. These developments suggest that the company was able to manage costs more effectively, optimise inventories and improve margins despite slight declines in some sales channels.

Net income in 2024 was $5.7 billion, up more than 12% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) rose nearly 15% to $3.76, indicating a strong return on capital despite stagnant sales. These results confirm that Nike has been able to protect its profitability through disciplined cost management, structural adjustments in marketing and operations, and focus on key product segments.

In terms of operating performance, EBITDA remains stable: after declining to USD 6.77 billion in 2023, it increased again to USD 7.16 billion in 2024. EBIT reached USD 6.31 billion and showed a year-on-year growth of almost 7%. Nike also continued its policy of reducing the number of shares outstanding, which supports earnings per share growth - the number of diluted shares has decreased by almost 5% over the past three years.

News

In terms of digital channels, Nike has seen a decline in online sales in 2025, which has led to a reassessment of the role of e-commerce within its broader distribution strategy. The company has focused on optimising digital platforms and better integrating physical and digital channels, with an emphasis on greater personalisation and integration with the Nike Membership loyalty programme.

On the brand management and marketing side, Nike is more focused than ever on Inspiration through sports storiesboth through elite athletes and the wider user community. In 2025, the company has increased its investment in sports marketing - particularly in the run-up to the Summer Olympics in Paris, where Nike once again aims to emerge as the dominant sports brand in both outwear and technology.

In the sustainability sphere, the company continued its Move to Zero agenda, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality and zero waste. In 2025, initiatives in product recycling, renewable energy and sustainable materials were expanded - particularly in product lines such as Nike Air, Space Hippie and Flyknit.

From an investor perspective, Nike continues to strengthen its position with stable returns on capital. In addition to dividend increases, the massive share buyback program continued with a four-year, $18 billion share repurchase program, which continued into 2025. This combination of strategic turnaround, focus on key sports segments and capital disciplines shows that Nike is entering a new phase of transformation with the ambition to return to long-term sustainable growth.

Shareholding structure

Nike continues to enjoy significant confidence from institutional investors, who control more than 86% of the company's shares in 2025. This high level of institutional holdings - representing nearly 88% of the free float - confirms the company's strong position in the capital markets as well as its status as one of the most trusted names in the global consumer sector. In total, the company recorded more than 2,900 institutional shareholders as at 31 March 2025, representing a very broad and diversified base of long-term holders.

In terms of individual investors, the largest shareholder remains Vanguard Group Inc.which held over 113 million shares of Nike, corresponding to a stake of 9,6 %. This position, worth over $8.15 billion demonstrates Vanguard's long-term belief in Nike's fundamental strength, its ability to weather cycles of consumer demand and adapt to a changing global environment.

In second place is BlackRock Inc.which as of March 2025 owned nearly 94.3 million shares, or approximately 8.0% stake in the company. The value of this stake was nearly 6.8 billion USD, confirming BlackRock's position in Nike as a key title in its portfolio of consumer brands with global reach.

The third most significant shareholder is State Street Corporationwhich owns more than 57.5 million shareswhich is equivalent to 4.9% stake. This investment, worth over 4.1 billion USD also confirms that the major holders of Nike shares include the world's largest asset management firms, which often represent the interests of millions of retail investors and pension funds.

Analysts' expectations

Based on 12-month price targets analysts for NIKE's average target price $77,00. The highest target price for NKE is $115.00, while the lowest target price for NKE is 58.00 USD.

Fair Price

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⚠ Invest responsibly!

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as an investment recommendation. The authors present only the facts known to them and do not draw any conclusions or make any recommendations to the reader.

Read our Terms and Conditions

Do you currently have a stock in your sights that you think could be the "second Palantir" (+1,391% over 5 years)? I'd like to look for something new, maybe a bit riskier, but with an interesting business model.

Archer Aviation: air taxis closer to reality than science fiction

🚀 Company background and vision

• Archer Aviation $ACHR is pioneering urban air mobility with the Midnight electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
• The goal is to transform urban transportation to be quiet, fast and green.
• It plans to start operations in Abu Dhabi as early as 2025 and in the US (NY, LA, SF, Miami) in 2026.
• The biggest ambition is to participate in the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028 as the official air carrier.

🤝 Cooperation with regulators and global expansion

• Archer $ACHR is actively working with the FAA and the US Department of Transportation (DOT).
• Significant step: alliance of 5 countries (US, UK, Australia, Canada, NZ) to simplify eVTOL certification across markets.
• In Abu Dhabi, working with Abu Dhabi Aviation and the GCAA regulatory authority, enabling earlier deployment of Midnight even without final certification in the US.
• Construction of a hybrid heliport to combine conventional and new aviation infrastructure.

📦 Contracts and enquiries

• The value of existing orders for the Midnight aircraft is US$ 6 billion.
• Strategic partnerships with United Airlines and Southwest Airlines bring credibility and future customers.

⚠️ Risks and challenges

1. Regulatory delays and certification
2. The transition from prototype to full operations may be slower than the company expects.
3. Any delay threatens the timeline and investor confidence.
4. Financial challenges and lack of revenue
5. The company has not yet generated any revenue.
6. Positive cash flow is not expected until around 2028.
7. This implies a high probability of further capital raising = dilution of existing shares.

💵 Financial situation

• The company currently has more than $1.85 billion in cash, thanks in part to a recent capital raise of $850 million.
• These funds are earmarked for:
• Production of the Midnight aircraft
• Completion of certification
• Building the operational infrastructure

🧭 Who is ACHR right for?

✅ Yes, if:

• You believe in the future of urban air travel.
• You have a long-term investment horizon (3-7 years).
• You are willing to accept high volatility and risk.
• You want to be part of the transportation revolution from the beginning.

❌ No, if:

• You expect a quick return or stable income (e.g. dividend).
• You are not willing to take risks in the pre-commercial phase of the project.
• You are not comfortable with dilution of shares and unclear timeline of return.

Summary

• Archer $ACHR is an attractive speculative growth investment with huge market potential - but also high risk.
• If the plan can be executed without major delays, the value of the company can increase multifold.
• However, if it fails in certification, logistics, or gaining public trust, the stock's value could plummet.

Shares of Oracle Corporation rose 7% in pre-market trading after CEO Safra Catz said the company is experiencing a strong start to fiscal 2026 with continued robust growth in the cloud.

Nvidia insiders have sold more than $1 billion worth of the company's stock in the past year, with a recent surge in trading activity as executives benefit from growing investor interest in artificial intelligence, the Financial Times reported Sunday.

Micron Technology delivered an exceptionally strong performance in the third fiscal quarter of 2025, confirming that the memory cycle has finally turned to growth. The company achieved an all-time quarterly revenue high of $9.3 billion, driven by record revenue from the DRAM segment and a sharp increase in revenue from HBM memory, which plays a key role in the era of artificial intelligence. The data centre business also strengthened significantly, with sales more than doubling year-on-year. Strong revenue performance went hand in hand with strong profitability, with net income multiplying sixfold year-on-year and the company generating nearly $2 billion in free cash flow.

The results confirm that Micron is not just a passive beneficiary of the virtuous cycle, but is actively benefiting from its technological superiority, effective cost management and increasing diversification of its customer base. Investments in advanced manufacturing technologies and capabilities, backed by government incentives, are enabling the company to respond to soaring demand for AI and data center memories. Financially, the company is in strong shape - with more than $12 billion in cash and an ongoing dividend program. Micron thus enters the final phase of the fiscal year with a clear direction: growth, technology leadership and a return to robust profitability.

How was the last quarter?

Micron Technology entered the third fiscal quarter of 2025 in style, reporting record revenue of $9.3 billion. This was a significant quarter-over-quarter increase of 15.5% (up from $8.05 billion in the second quarter) and year-over-year growth of 36.5% (up from $6.81 billion in the same period last year). This performance was driven primarily by strong growth in the DRAM segment, where sales reached an all-time high, and a nearly 50% sequential expansion in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is becoming a key technology for emerging Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications.

Data center revenue also saw a significant boost, more than doubling year-over-year and also reaching a quarterly record. Consumer-oriented markets then contributed to strong sequential growth across segments. Gross margin improved to 37.7% (GAAP) and 39.0% (non-GAAP), signaling continued improvement in profitability after a more challenging period of cyclical downturn in the storage technology sector. Operating profit (GAAP) increased to $2.17 billion, representing a 23.3% margin on sales, while adjusted operating profit increased to $2.49 billion with a 26.8% margin. GAAP net income was $1.89 billion ($1.68 per share) and adjusted net income was $2.18 billion ($1.91 per share), representing a more than six-fold year-over-year increase from $0.30 per share in the same period last year.

Financially, Micron also strengthened its position, with free cash flow (adjusted) reaching $1.95 billion and operating cash flow of $4.61 billion, up significantly from $2.48 billion a year ago. At the same time, the company continued to invest in capacity expansion, with capital expenditures in the quarter exceeding $2.66 billion. The company's cash position improved significantly: at the end of the quarter, Micron had more than $12.2 billion in cash, equivalents and short-term investments. The continued dividend is also an important milestone for shareholders, with the Board of Directors declaring a quarterly payout of USD 0.115 per share. Thus, the third quarter results not only confirmed the recovery of the memory market, but also showed that Micron is poised to benefit from a new wave of demand that has the potential to permanently change the entire industry, thanks to its technology leadership, manufacturing optimization and exposure to AI applications.

CEO comments

Micron Technology's CEO, Sanjay Mehrotra, called the third fiscal quarter of 2025 a watershed period, reflecting the company's growing strength across key markets and technology categories. In his statement, he particularly highlighted record sales driven by unprecedented growth in DRAM, particularly in HBM products, which are growing rapidly as the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) advances. "Micron achieved its highest quarterly sales ever, driven by strong growth in the DRAM segment, with HBM sales growing sequentially by nearly 50%. We also saw significant growth in our data center business, which more than doubled year-over-year. End consumer demand also showed a solid recovery," Mehrotra said.

He laid crucial emphasis on the fact that strong performance goes hand in hand with disciplined investment and strategic development of manufacturing and research capabilities. He said Micron is on track to end fiscal 2025 with record sales, solid profitability and strong free cash flow. Mehrotra also noted that the company is building on its long-term technological excellence to meet the growing global demand for advanced memory solutions. "We are building our position as a key supplier for the AI era - investing judiciously in technologies and production lines that will ensure our competitiveness not only today, but in the years to come," Mehrotra concluded, emphasizing the company's long-term growth potential and strategic vision.

Outlook

Micron enters the final quarter of fiscal 2025 with exceptionally strong momentum and confidence in continued growth across key segments. The company expects further sequential revenue growth of approximately 15%, which would translate to approximately $10.7 billion, despite continued global macroeconomic uncertainty. This optimism is primarily based on the rapidly growing demand for advanced memory products, particularly high-capacity HBM DRAM solutions, which are becoming a key component in AI infrastructure. The Company expects its HBM portfolio to continue to benefit from the structural growth of AI computing platforms, and will remain a major player in this area due to its strong relationships with major data center customers.

On margins, Micron projects further improvement: gross margin is expected to reach approximately 42% on a non-GAAP basis, a significant shift from historical levels and reflecting a better product mix, higher pricing and continued cost optimization. Operating expenses are expected to hold around US$1.2 billion, indicating strong operating leverage and continued discipline in expense management. The company also expects non-GAAP earnings per share to rise to US$2.50 (±US$0.15), which would represent a significant increase over Q3 results and confirm a return to robust profitability.

Long-term results

Micron Technology's financial performance over the past four years illustrates the cyclical nature of the semiconductor sector, with 2024 marking a return to growth after a very challenging prior period. The company recorded a strong 61.6% increase in revenue to $25.1 billion in this fiscal year, a sharp turnaround from 2023, when revenue fell by almost half to $15.5 billion. This development was driven primarily by a rapid recovery in demand for memory, particularly DRAM and NAND products, which benefited from the development of AI infrastructure, growing data centers, and recovering end markets in the PC and mobile segments.

Significant revenue growth also had a positive impact on profitability. Gross profit in 2024 reached US$5.6 billion, a jump of nearly 500% year-on-year, from a previous loss of US$1.4 billion. Such a development is confirmed by both the improved pricing environment in the memory market, as well as increasing manufacturing efficiency and a better product mix with higher margins. EBITDA grew to US$9.6 billion from US$2.5 billion in 2023, while operating profit (EBIT) was US$1.8 billion - compared to a previous loss of over US$5 billion. Net income also saw a positive turnaround, reaching US$778 million, compared to a loss of US$5.8 billion in 2023. Earnings per share thus returned to positive territory (US$0.70), although still well below the 2021 and 2022 levels of over US$7.

Comparisons with earlier years show how badly the company was hit by a sharp drop in demand, a price war in the memory segment and excess inventory in 2023. While in 2022, net profit was $8.7 billion and sales were over $30.7 billion, a year later the company plunged into a loss of over $5.8 billion. However, this cyclical decline was quickly offset in 2024 by rising AI-driven demand and a resurgence in computing. Despite higher operating expenses, which rose to $4.3 billion year-on-year, the company maintained positive operating leverage and improved efficiency.

News

The year 2025 was marked by a strong turnaround to growth and expansion in key segments for Micron Technology, primarily due to a sharp increase in demand for memories used in AI applications. A highlight was the record performance of the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) segment, which grew Q3 sales by nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter. This progress is the result of strategic investments in manufacturing and technology collaboration with leading data center customers and GPU manufacturers. As a result, Micron is benefiting from the accelerating adoption of AI in the enterprise and consumer sectors and has become one of the key memory suppliers for next-generation high-performance computing.

Another important milestone in 2025 is the robust growth in the data center segment, where the company achieved its highest quarterly revenue ever. Data center DRAM and NAND solutions are finding adoption not only with cloud giants, but also in on-premises AI inferencing systems. In addition, Micron has also seen a strong recovery in end consumer segments - particularly in mobile devices, where it is enjoying higher demand for next-generation LPDDR memory. Mobile chips with optimizations for power efficiency and performance under AI workloads are finding adoption across a wide range of OEMs.

On the investment front, Micron announced continued expansion of its manufacturing capacity, including the construction of a new factory in Idaho, USA, and line expansions in Japan. These projects are being funded in part by federal incentives under the US CHIPS and Science Act, with the company having already received more than US$1 billion in direct support in the first half of the year. Total capital expenditures for the first nine months of fiscal year 2025 reached over $10 billion, reflecting a growing emphasis on technology leadership, particularly in 1β DRAM and 232-layer NAND.

Micron also strengthened its return to shareholders. In June, the company's board of directors approved a regular dividend of $0.115 per share, and the company is also reporting solid free cash flow, which exceeded $1.9 billion in the third quarter. The financial discipline and strong balance sheet allow the company to continue to invest even in an environment of increased capital market volatility.

Shareholder Structure

Micron Technology enjoys exceptionally strong institutional support, confirming its strategic importance in the global technology ecosystem and investor confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on the AI boom. As of March 31, 2025, institutional holders held more than 83% of the company's outstanding shares, one of the highest numbers in the entire semiconductor sector. In total, more than 2,400 institutions hold stakes in Micron, creating a broad and stable base of long-term investors.

The largest shareholder remains Vanguard Group Inc. which owns approximately 102 million shares, corresponding to a 9.1% stake in the company. The value of this position exceeds $12.7 billion, and demonstrates Vanguard's long-term belief in Micron's growth potential, particularly in the areas of storage solutions for data center and advanced AI applications.

The second most significant institutional entity is BlackRock Inc. which held nearly 94 million shares as of March 2025, or roughly an 8.4% stake valued at over $11.7 billion. BlackRock's exposure to Micron confirms its confidence in its technological maturity, ability to generate profitable growth and adapt to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry.

In third place is Capital World Investors, which owns over 54 million shares, representing a nearly 4.9% stake. This reputable investment firm is known for its focus on long-term fundamentals and quality growth companies. Its presence in the shareholder structure reinforces the perception of Micron as a stable player with significant growth potential.

Analysts' expectations

Based on 12-month price targets 24 analysts' average target price for Micron Technology is USD 146.21. The highest target price for MU is 200.00 USDwhile the lowest target price for MU is 67.00 USD.

Fair Price

---------------------------

⚠ Invest responsibly!

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as an investment recommendation. The authors present only the facts known to them and do not draw any conclusions or make any recommendations to the reader.

Read our Terms and Conditions

📅 This week's key events!
Important events this week will be labour market and macroeconomic indicators. Friday will be quiet on the stock markets due to Independence Day.

🎙️ Tuesday
Fed Chairman Powell's Speech - What is his view on the current state of the US economy?
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI - An indicator of the current health of the industry.
💼 JOLTS Job Openings - An important signal of tightness in the labor market.

Results before the markets open:
🛩️ Leonardo $FINMY - Italian defense and aerospace technology manufacturer can be an indicator of sentiment in the defense sector.

🚗 Wednesday
Tesla $TSLA Q2 deliveries - Do you still see Tesla as a car company or more of a tech giant?

📊 Thursday
US Labor Market Report - The most important macro data of the month.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims - Weekly indicator of labor market strength.
🧾 ISM Services PMI -The services sector keeps the US economy afloat, any change in trend is crucial.

🎆 Friday
Independence Day (US) - Stock markets remain closed.

What events will you be watching in the coming week? What purchases did you make in the last one?

Do you invest in emerging markets? If so, what stocks or ETFs do you have in your portfolio?

I used to consider buying ETFs on India because of its strong growth, but I eventually backed away from it because of the political problems there at the time.

At first glance, this is a prime example of a value stock. Stable cash flow, dividend in excess of 9%, valuation multiples well below the market average. The company produces products that the global economy cannot do without, and its market position is among the top in the industry. And yet investors are not interested. In an era of growth stories, technology and green initiatives, this company seems like a relic of the past - big, heavy, not sexy enough. But that may be a fundamental misconception.

For beneath the surface, a quiet but strategically crucial transformation is taking place. Management is divesting nonprofit assets, investing heavily in advanced recycling technologies, and reshaping the manufacturing base to fit the new ESG paradigm. The goal is not just to survive the cycle, but to become a leader in higher value-added circular plastics and specialty chemicals. Add to that a conservative balance sheet, a long history of return on capital and management's determination to protect the dividend at all costs - and you have a company that could surprise on all fronts in the years ahead. While the market looks back, this company looks forward.

✅ Top points of analysis

• Dividend yield over 9%among the highest in the S&P 500
• EV/EBITDA below 10x, significantly cheaper than competitors
• Free cash flow of $1.5 billion despite cyclical downturn
• Portfolio restructuring: Refinery divestment, focus on specialty chemicals
• Investment in recycling and ESG Billions of dollars
• FCF yield around 8%, underlined by conservative debt
• 13-year growing dividend, strong continuity despite profitability fluctuations
• Possible re-rating of the stockif the market appreciates the shift to more sustainable segments

Basic company profile

A company that today is primarily viewed by investors as a dividend giant is in fact one of the largest chemical concerns in the world. Its products are found in almost every sector - from packaging materials, automotive and consumer goods to agriculture, healthcare and construction. We are talking about the US-Dutch giant LyondellBasell Industries $LYB, which was formed in 2007 by the merger of the European Basell and the American Lyondell Chemical Company.

LyondellBasell is today a global leader in polyolefins, polymer chemistry and recycling technologies. It operates in three main segments:

The company has manufacturing facilities on four continents and its customers range from global FMCG corporations to industrial manufacturers. Although its core business remains cyclical, the company has consistently focused on higher added value, more stable margins and sustainable growth. A key step was also the decision to to sell the Houston refinerywhich marks a deliberate exit from the more volatile part of the business.

Financial performance

From a numbers perspective, LyondellBasell is in a transition phase. After a record year in 2022 (due to post-covide demand and high plastics prices), there was a downturn in 2023, which carried over into the first half of 2024. Yet the company remains highly profitable and generates strong free cash flow, which allows not only for the dividend payment but also for continued investment in transforming the business.

• Revenues: $38.1 billion
• EBITDA: Approximately $3.0 billion
• Net profit: $1.06 billion
• Free cash flow: $1.51 billion
• Gross margin: ~14 %
• EBITDA margin: ~7,8 %
• CAPEX: ~$2.0 billion (much of which goes to recycling and ESG projects)

Q1 2025 showed signs of stabilization - revenues remained more or less flat YoY, EBITDA margins improved slightly due to lower inputs and restructuring savings. The results so far confirm that the company is able to maintain profitability even in a lower demand environment.

Management and capital allocation

The current transformation of the company is driven by Peter Vanacker, CEO since 2022, who has brought a new strategic vision to LyondellBasell. Vanacker has experience from his leadership of Finland's Neste - a world leader in renewable fuels - and his arrival signalled a shift away from traditional petrochemicals towards more sustainable and specialty chemicals.

• The sale of the Houston refinery: The company divested one of the least profitable and environmentally burdensome parts of its business. The move not only improved capital efficiency but also reduced volatility in profitability.
• Recycling and ESG strategy: Launching projects in the field of advanced recycling (e.g. MoReTec technology), building new plants for processing plastic waste, working with partners in Europe and Asia.
• Capital discipline:
• • Dividend policy remains a priority - the company pays a dividend even in periods of weaker profits.
  • Acquisitions are selective, focusing on ESG and specialty chemicals.
  • CAPEX allocated to projects with higher return on capital (typically >15% IRR).

Management consistently communicates that the goal is not to maximize short-term margins, but to long-term shareholder value creation. This is matched by a strategy of reinvesting most of the free cash flow back into the company, particularly into technological upgrades and the circular economy.

Dividend policy

LyondellBasell's dividend yield is among the highest across large U.S. companies - currently around 9,4 %, despite a decline in profitability in recent quarters. The company has built a reputation as a reliable payer that protects its dividend payout as one of its top capital allocation priorities.

• Payout: Quarterly, currently $1.27 per share
• Yield: ~9.4% (at a share price of ~$59)
• Payout ratio: ~165% of TTM earnings (EPS ~$3.25) - thus well above sustainable levels
• History:
• • Stable or increasing dividend every year since IPO in 2010
  • Regular special dividends in years with FCF surplus (e.g., 2021-2022)

But this approach raises an important question: Is such a high yield sustainable in the long term?

Current data suggests that the firm is able to fund the dividend from cash flow, but not from net income. That is, unless FCF consistently levels off above $2 billion per year, management may be forced to reduce it - especially in an environment where it also wants to fund billions of dollars of ESG investments.

On the other hand, it should be added that low debt (net debt/EBITDA <2×) and a strong liquidity position give the company time and room to recover without the immediate need to cut the dividend.

Valuation: DCF model and scenarios

At first glance, LyondellBasell may appear to be a typical case of a value stock - high dividend yield, low earnings multiples and a stable market position. But a closer look makes it clear that the key to valuing this stock lies not in historical metrics, but in the future: that is, whether the company can actually manage the transformation towards more sustainable and profitable segments.

📌 DCF fair value per share: $63-68

➡️ Current price around $59 means the stock is slightly undervaluedand the valuation does not fully factor in the potential for margin improvement and a move into specialty products.

Development scenarios

Sensitivity table (WACC vs. growth)

➡️ Valuation is sensitive to FCF and WACC growth - there is room for upside, but the market remains skeptical for now due to weaker quarters and payout policy.

Comparison with competitors

Within the global chemical companies, LyondellBasell is in an odd position: not the largest, not the fastest growing, but its efficiency and shareholder payout are among the most significant in the industry. And importantly - its valuation remains well below the sector averageoffering an asymmetric risk/reward investment ratio.

• Valuation: Among the cheapest, even with weaker EPS
• FCF yield: Above 8% - the market does not yet believe it is sustainable
• Dividend: unmatched among peers
• ROIC: Better than most chemical companies, despite being a "commodity" segment

➡️ LyondellBasell is perhaps the most attractive company in its sector in terms of value for money. But investors are still hesitant to believe the transformation story.

Growth potential and expansion

Although LyondellBasell is seen as a mature, cyclical basic chemicals company, there is a major transformation underway beneath the surface. The company is investing billions of dollars in technology to prepare it for a future with stricter ESG standards, pressure to recycle, and customer demand for sustainability. The goal is not to maximize production volume, but to to add value and reduce earnings volatility.

• MoReTec: A proprietary chemical recycling technology for plastic waste that enables the remanufacture of polymers with properties comparable to virgin plastic.
• Investments in Europe and the USA: New plants dedicated to the processing of difficult-to-recycle plastics (e.g. LDPE, PP).
• Target by 2030: Up to 2 million tonnes of recycled or renewable material per year.

• Diversification beyond conventional polyolefins into areas with higher margins: Composites, functional polymers, additives.
• Strengthening the Advanced Polymer Solutions (APS) segment, which has growth potential due to demand for lightweight, durable and sustainable materials (e.g. for e-mobility or construction).

• Asia: Growing demand for quality plastics in India, Indonesia, China. Strategic joint ventures e.g. with Sinopec.
• Latin America: Focus on plastics for agriculture, packaging and infrastructure.
• Middle East & US Gulf Coast: Advantage of low-cost gas → expansion of ethylene and polyolefins production.

• Investment in Process automation, emissions monitoring and supply chain optimization.
• Target to be carbon neutral by 2050, with milestones by 2030 (e.g. -30% CO₂ emissions).

➡️ Today, LyondellBasell is not just a plastics producer - it is a company that is ambitiously building its position in circular chemistry. If it succeeds in making this transformation, it could go from a classic dividend value stock to a growth-defensive ESG leader.

SWOT analysis of LyondellBasell

Strengths

• High and stable free cash flow, ability to fund dividend even in a cyclical downturn
• Dividend yield over 9%, with a history of payout and growth since 2011
• Conservative leverage (net debt/EBITDA < 2x), strong liquidity position
• Leading position in the global polyolefins market
• Effective management and capital discipline, sale of low-margin assets (Houston refinery)
• Strategic investments in recycling and ESG solutions, proprietary MoReTec technology

Weaknesses

• Dependence on cyclical demand and commodity prices, especially in the core business
• High payout ratio on net profit (>100%), which may increase pressure on dividend sustainability
• Low revenue growth in traditional segments, slow change in product mix
• Perception as "old industry", discouraging ESG capital and retail investors

Opportunities

• Growth in advanced recycling - Legislation and demand push for greener solutions
• Expansion into specialty chemicals with higher margins and lower cyclicality
• Development in Asia and emerging marketswhere plastics consumption and infrastructure are growing
• Re-rating sharesif the market appreciates the new strategic direction and ESG transformation

Threats

• Recession and weaker industrial demand → pressure on margins and FCF
• Dividend cut riskif the cycle remains subdued for a longer period of time
• Increasing regulation and ESG reporting, potential increase in costs
• Strong global competitionincluding lower cost producers in Asia

SWOT analysis shows that LyondellBasell is now a mix of a traditional cash flow machine and a promising transformation story. This makes it all the more important to understand the investment in scenarios - and it is these that we will build on with the final section.

Conclusion.

LyondellBasell is a textbook example of a company that the average investor could easily classify as a "boring" value stock. But the reality is much more interesting. Yes, the stock currently offers a yield of over 9 % and trades at EV/EBITDA below 10xmaking it one of the cheapest companies in its sector. But that's not all.

Under new management, the company has actively shedding cyclical drag, investing in recycling and circular chemistry and slowly reshaping its portfolio towards higher added value and sustainability. This is not a "high-growth" story - but a a defensive player with a surprisingly dynamic outlook.

• Strong dividend and robust cash flow
• Attractive valuation that already takes into account negative scenarios
• Management willing to reshape the business - even at the cost of short-term pain

• Dividend sustainability at lower EPS
• Success in specialty chemicals and ESG transformation
• Market response to change in nature of the business - re-rating can take time

Investment considerations

For Investor seeking high yield, stability and exposure to the physical industrial fundamentals of the economy, LyondellBasell may be the an exceptional opportunity. Moreover, with a more tempered view of volatility and a willingness to hold the stock through the cycle, one can access an attractive transition story - from a cyclical commodity titan towards an ESG-oriented chemical platform.

---------------------------

⚠ Invest responsibly!

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and does not serve as an investment recommendation. The authors present only facts known to them and do not draw any conclusions or recommendations for the reader.

Read our Terms and Conditions

What do you think about the growth of $NKEstock ?

Nike announced plans to reduce its reliance on manufacturing in China for the U.S. market. Following the news, the stock rose more than 15%. I held$NKEstock in my portfolio for a while, but later sold it because I don't find it that attractive in the long run and this news doesn't mean any major turnaround yet in my opinion.

The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month in May 2025, the same as in April and in line with expectations. Goods prices rose 0.1%, the same as in April, and services prices rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% in the previous month. The core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% in the prior two months and the forecast of 0.1%.

Shares of $SOFI are a short distance from their ATH and so far the trend is positive. For me, Sofi is one of the stocks I'm betting on and I expect big growth from it this year.

What do you think of $SOFI? Do you have shares of this company in your portfolio?

Apple on Thursday adjusted rules and fees on the European Union's App Store after EU antitrust authorities ordered the company to remove barriers preventing developers from steering customers off the platform. Developers will now pay a 20% fee for purchases made through the App Store, which can drop to 13% under the small business program. If developers direct customers to external payment channels, they will pay a fee of between 5% and 15%. They can also use any number of links leading outside the App Store. Apple is taking these steps in response to the threat of daily fines of up to €50 million for breaches of the Digital Marketplace Regulation. The company previously paid a €500 million fine imposed in April.

Global mining giant Rio Tinto entered 2025 with a combination of challenges and successes, reflecting the cyclical nature of the commodities sector and the company's strategic shift towards new commodities of the future. Although the first quarter was impacted by adverse weather events in Australia's Pilbara region, which reduced iron ore production and shipments by almost a tenth, the company also delivered historically record results for bauxite and copper production. Rio's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, which Rio is systematically developing, delivered an exceptionally strong performance, contributing to a 16% year-on-year increase in copper production.

At the same time, the company was able to significantly strengthen its strategic position in the energy transition. In March, Rio Tinto $RIO completed the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium and officially launched its lithium-focused division, a key raw material for batteries and electromobility. The $6.7 billion acquisition increased the company's net debt, but also opened up new opportunities for portfolio diversification and growth in segments with long-term demand. Overall, Rio Tinto confirms that alongside its traditional pillars - iron ore, aluminium and copper - it is now firmly established in the modern materials needed for the green economy.

How was the last quarter?

In the last quarter, Rio Tinto did not publish separate sales or earnings figures as it only publishes a production update (results are published on a half-yearly and annual basis). Financial results for the first half of the year are traditionally reported in July. However, the context of the annual data shows a strong financial position, which was also the basis for the performance in Q1. For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenues of USD 54 billion, a net profit of USD 11.6 billion a an operating profit (EBIT) of USD 16.5 billion. These results were driven by strong demand for iron ore, aluminium and copper, and resulted in free cash flow in excess of USD 7 billion.

Even without exact quarterly numbers, the first quarter of 2025 can be described as mixed. On the one hand, the company has been hit by the iron ore production shortfalls in Australia, with output down year-on-year by 10% to 69.8 million tonnes and shipments by 9% to 70.7 million tonnes due to extreme weather. On the other hand, Rio Tinto recorded record bauxite production (15 million tonnes, +12%) a significant growth in copper (+16% to 210 thousand tonnes)mainly thanks to the Mongolian Oyu Tolgoi mine. Alumina production also rose to 1.92 million tonnes (+3%) and aluminium operations remained stable.

The strategic entry into the lithium mining sector had a major impact on the financial balance sheet. In March, Rio Tinto completed the acquisition of Arcadium Lithium for USD 6.7 billion, increasing the company's total net debt by USD 7.6 billion. The newly formed Rio Tinto Lithium division has already started production in Q1 and delivered 17,000 tonnes of lithium carbonateconfirming the rapid entry of this new strategic raw material into the company's portfolio. Despite additional capital expenditure of USD 11 billion for the full year 2025, the company remains strongly capitalised and able to fund its growth projects and shareholder returns.

CEO commentary

CEO Jakob Stausholm in his remarks, praised the improving operational discipline while highlighting progress on growth projects, which he said are critical to the long-term value of the company: "We continue to see strong operational improvement, with the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and our bauxite operations recording record monthly production in March. However, production was impacted by extreme weather events which impacted our iron ore operations in the Pilbara region." Stausholm thus acknowledged the short-term complications, but underlined the company's resilience and readiness to resume production volumes within the current year.

Outlook

Rio Tinto confirmed that its full-year production and cost guidance remains unchanged for 2025, despite the weather complications that affected the first quarter. Traditionally, most of the focus has been on iron ore - a key commodity in the company's portfolio - where supply is still expected to remain in the range of 323 to 338 million tonnes. Given the estimated shortfall 13 million tonnes due to four cyclones in Australia, however, the company expects the resulting volume to be in the at the lower end of this range.. Despite this, however, Rio is implementing mitigations to recover approximately half of the lost volume during the remainder of the year. Management expects the shortfalls to be partially offset by a weaker Australian dollar and savings in logistics and production.

In the bauxite the company confirmed expected production 57 to 59 million tonnes, with operations continuing their trend of high availability and efficiency, as demonstrated by the record March performance. U alumina a primary aluminium the outlook is between 7.4 to 7.8 million tonnes a 3.25 to 3.45 million tonnes per year. In the segment copper Rio Tinto expects volumes in the range of 780 to 850 thousand tonnesThis outlook is supported by strong production momentum at the Oyu Tolgoi mine, which continues to benefit from the ramp-up of the underground mine and associated infrastructure.

Long-term results

Rio Tinto's financial performance over the past four years paints a picture of a company that has been through significant cycles, affected by fluctuations in commodity markets, geopolitical events and variable cost pressures. Total revenues reached 2024 levels USD 53.66 billion, a slight decrease of 0,71 % compared to the previous year. This relatively stable result comes after two years of steady decline - in 2023, revenues fell by 2,72 % and in 2022 by 12,5 %, with the company peaking in 2021, when revenues were USD 63.5 billion. This reflects the weakening of iron ore and other key commodity prices following an extremely strong post-covid year in 2021.

However, despite stagnating revenues, Rio Tinto improved its profitability in 2024. Gross profit rose 75% year-on-year to US$30.28 billionprimarily due to a sharp fall in cost of goods sold of more than 36%. This efficient management of operating costs led to a clear improvement in the operating margin. In 2024, the company has thus reported an operating profit (EBIT) of USD 17.24 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of more than 22 %, while net income increased by 15 % at USD 11.55 billion. Compared to 2023 earnings, this is a return to trend growth after a previous decline caused by a combination of lower commodity prices and higher costs.

Significant fluctuations can also be seen at the level of operating expenses. In 2022, they reach extreme USD 35.7 billionwhile in 2023 there is a sharp drop to just USD 2.5 billion. This swing reflects one-off accounting adjustments and asset revaluations. Expenditure then rose again in 2024 to USD 14.63 billionbut remained well below its historical peak. Indicator EBITDA followed a similar trajectory - after falling to USD 20.4 billion in 2023, it rose last year to USD 22.3 billion, and while it falls short of 2021-2022 levels, it remains at a very solid level within the mining sector.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto maintains an extremely conservative approach to issuing new shares. The average number of diluted shares increased only slightly between 2021 and 2024, from 1.63 billion at 1.63 billion, implying virtually zero dilutive momentum. This factor, combined with rising profitability, has led to an increase in earnings per share: z USD 6.16 in 2023 to USD 7.07 Despite the volatility of sales and the changing market environment, Rio Tinto has demonstrated its ability to adapt to the cyclical nature of the industry and consolidate its performance at a level that provides a stable return to shareholders.

News

Meanwhile, 2025 clearly confirms a strategic shift for Rio Tinto towards diversifying its commodity portfolio and strengthening its position in the energy transition. The most significant news in the first quarter was The completion of the acquisition of Arcadium Lithiumwhich took place in March. This move created a new division Rio Tinto Lithiumwhich combines the existing Rincon project in Argentina with the technological and mining capabilities of the acquired company. The company has now entered the serious players in the lithium market - a key raw material for the battery and electric vehicle industries - and gained access to a long-term attractive segment with high growth potential.

In addition, Rio Tinto continued to develop its global iron ore empireparticularly through the Simandou in Guineawhich remains on schedule and is described as one of the most ambitious high-grade iron ore projects in the world. Within the Pilbara region of Australia, a milestone has been reached of the first iron ore mined at the Western Range Project, while the Brockman Syncline 1 project has been approved for an investment of US$1.8 billion. Both projects form the backbone of the replacement strategy for mined out deposits and are intended to ensure long-term supply stability.

In the area of sustainability and environmental responsibility Rio Tinto continues to work to reduce its carbon footprint across its operations. The company continues to implement its internal Safe Production SystemSystem to improve production efficiency and safety while reducing environmental impacts. In particular, the Amrun operation in Queensland has seen a significant shift, with a record increase in bauxite production due to improved equipment availability and higher capacity utilisation.

Also of note is the progress made in aluminium recyclingwhere Rio Tinto reported year-on-year production growth, reflecting not only improving market conditions but also a focus on the circular economy. In this way, the company is responding to growing pressure from investors and regulators, who are increasingly considering sustainability as a key factor in investment decisions.

Shareholding structure

Rio Tinto remains at the heart of the world's largest institutional investors in 2025, and the company's shareholding structure reflects its global significance and strategic role in the key commodities sector. In terms of shareholding size, the Chinese state-owned Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco) dominates, holding approximately 14.6% of the company's shares through its subsidiaries. This share represents a significant geopolitical factor and also reflects China's interest in securing access to key raw materials such as iron ore, bauxite and copper.

There is also a strong presence of passive capital from the United States, with investment giant BlackRock owning an estimated 7-9% of the company through its various entities and ETFs, confirming its long-term interest in the stable and dividend-paying mining sector. The other major passive investor is the Vanguard Group, which holds an approximate 3% stake, also representing a stable pillar of institutional confidence. These investors are joined by State Street Global Advisors, which holds an approximate 3.3% stake in Rio Tinto.

In addition to the US equity managers, Australia's largest superannuation fund, AustralianSuper, has a strong presence in the shareholder base, holding around 2.6% to 3% of the company. Norway's sovereign wealth fund Norges Bank Investment Management also plays a significant role, with a stake of around 1.8%. This fund has been active at general meetings in recent years and has been particularly active on the topics of sustainability, carbon footprint and environmental management.

Analysts' expectations

Based on 12-month target prices analysts' target prices for Rio Tinto's average target price $73,00. The highest target price for RIO is $73.00, while the lowest target price for RIO is 73.00 USD.

Fair Price

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📈 Micron announces record quarter and ambitious outlook!
In the third fiscal quarter of 2025, Micron Technology $MU demonstrated a return to a growth trajectory. Record revenues of $9.3 billion, a nearly fivefold year-over-year increase in net income, and significant margin improvement across segments show that the memory industry has its strong period ahead.

🔍 Key Figures (Q3 FY25):
Revenues: $9.30 billion (expectations $8.87 billion)

Non-GAAP earnings per share: $1.91 ($1.60 expected)

GAAP earnings per share: $1.68

Free cash flow: $1.95 billion

Gross margin: 39% (non-GAAP)

Growth was driven by all segments, with an extreme jump in HBM memory (High Bandwidth Memory)a key element for AI accelerators. Data center revenue growth was also strong, more than doubling.

📦 Financial strength and return on capital:
Capital expenditure: $2.66 billion

Cash position: +USD 12 billion

Dividend paid: $0.115 per share (7/22/2025)

Micron has sufficient funds to continue to expand, invest and return shares to shareholders. And with this rate of growth, that will be important.

🔭 Outlook (Q4 FY25):
Revenue: $10.7bn (vs. consensus $9.9bn)

Earnings per share: ~$2.50 (non-GAAP)

Gross margin: heading towards 42%

CEO Sanjay Mehrotra called the current growth a direct result of "disciplined investment and technology leadership in AI-memory". This year alone, Micron' s stock has notched up more than 48 %.

Shares are flat today after the earnings announcement.

What do you think of Micron?

Chinese electric car and smartphone maker Xiaomi on Thursday priced its new YU7 SUV 10,000 yuan ($1,395) cheaper than Tesla's Model Y, raising the challenge for the U.S. firm in the world's biggest car market. The base YU7 starts at 253,500 yuan ($35,364), with the more premium YU7 Pro and YU7 Max models costing 279,900 and 329,900 yuan, respectively. Xiaomi will be taking orders for all three models starting Thursday evening.

Japan's rice crisis: what does it reveal about the state of one of the world's largest economies?

While the world watches the technology boom or geopolitical tensions, a crisis is quietly unfolding in Japan that has deeper significance than meets the eye. The land of the rising sun is facing a shortage of rice, a staple not only for daily consumption but also for the nation's cultural identity. Rice prices have doubled in recent months, store shelves are emptying and the state is reaching into reserves. But it is not just the farming season - the crisis is exposing weaknesses that have been ingrained in the Japanese economy for a long time.

Japan now imports over 50% of its food consumption. In a country with high urbanisation, an ageing population and a rural labour drain, maintaining food self-sufficiency is an increasing challenge. Added to this are rising inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and global trade uncertainty. Economists and analysts are beginning to suggest that this "rice episode" is not an exception, but a harbinger of a broader problem - the fragility of Japan's economic resilience.

This is an interesting signal for investors. The Japanese are known for their technological strength and export orientation, but this situation shows that systemic risk can come from an area that is at first glance inconspicuous - food security. The question is: how will Japanese agricultural and food companies respond to this? Will domestic production revive? Will investment in agri-technology and rural robotics come? And what role will public institutions play in this?

- Rice prices here have been falling in recent weeks, but it is not because the situation has calmed down. The government is sending incentives and drawing on 2020-21 stocks.

What about you and Japan? Are you following this market? Do you have any stocks here?

Shares of Cyngn are up 180% in premarket trading after the autonomous vehicle technology company was featured in an NVIDIA blog post.

The industrial automation company was selected as one of a select group of robotics innovators using NVIDIA's Isaac platform to develop autonomous solutions for industrial applications. The mention comes ahead of Automatica 2025, a major smart automation and robotics trade show where Cyngn will showcase its technology.

Cyngn's autonomous industrial vehicles, which incorporate NVIDIA Isaac and the company's proprietary DriveMod software, are currently deployed in commercial environments. The company's solutions are designed to reduce labor costs, increase operational capacity and improve safety for industrial organizations such as manufacturers and logistics companies.

AeroVironment (AVAV): exceptional growth and billion-dollar potential

📊 Key financial results

• Revenues $AVAV for the latest quarter reached $275.1 million, a 40% year-on-year growth and significantly beating estimates (expectations were for approximately $241.5 million).
• Earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 were $1.61, more than triple last year's $0.43.
• Full-year revenue was $820.6 million, up 14% from a year earlier.
• Backlog rose to $726.6 million from last year's $400.2 million - nearly double.

📈 Outlook for 2026

• Revenue is expected to be in the range of USD 1.9 to 2 billion.
• EBITDA $AVAV (operating profit before depreciation and amortization) is expected to reach $300-320 million.
• Wall Street analysts are a bit more cautious - their estimates call for revenues of USD 2 billion, but EBITDA lower, around USD 287 million.
• A significant factor in the outlook is the planned merger with BlueHalo, which will expand $AVAV's capabilities in space and intelligence technologies.

1. Exceptional profit and revenue growth
   
2. EPS grew more than 3x, reflecting the company's high efficiency and growing demand for its products.
3. The 40% revenue growth in Q4 indicates that products like loitering munitions and unmanned systems are in high demand.
4. Geographical diversification
5. The decline in revenue from Ukraine (from 38% to 18%, and expected to be below 5% in 2026) is offset by growth in other regions - notably the Middle East, Indo-Pacific and Europe.
6. Innovation and expansion
7. $AVAV is investing in new technologies such as autonomous systems, cruise missiles and space technologies.
8. The planned merger with BlueHalo could take the company to a new level technologically and market-wise.

SWOT summary (verbal)

STRENGTHS

• Technological superiority in drones and loitering munitions
• Rapid revenue and profit growth
• Strong orders and global market diversification
  

WEAKNESSES

• High dependence on government defense budgets
• Potential risks associated with the integration of the BlueHalo acquisition

OPPORTUNITIES

• Rising defence spending in many countries
• Entry into the civilian security sector
• Expansion into space and intelligence technologies
  

THREATS

• Geopolitical fluctuations and government procurement delays
• Regulation of military exports
• Increasing competition (e.g. Lockheed, Kratos, Palantir)

💵 Valuation and current share price

• Current share price: approximately $234.94
• Share price appreciation of more than 21% this year
• Forward P/E (price/earnings) is around 40x - high, but consistent with growth potential
• The company's market capitalization is approximately $6.5 billion

🧭 Who is AVAV suitable for?

• ✅ For growth-oriented investors looking for companies with high potential and a technological edge
• ✅ For thematic investors focused on defense, autonomy, drones and AI
• ✅ For long-term investors who expect to grow over the next 3-5 years
• ❌ Not suitable for dividend investors - AeroVironment does not pay a dividend
• ❌ Not suitable for conservative value investors as the stock is more expensive from a traditional valuation perspective

The negative news on Novo Nordisk keeps coming and the stock fell another 4% yesterday. So far I am in the red, but I still believe in the company and hope that the trend will turn around.

Do you think $NVO will turn around and start growing again this year?

📈 Quarterly results of Micron:

Micron Technology achieved an all-time high revenue of $9.3 billion in the third fiscal quarter of 2025, representing strong growth over both the previous quarter ($8.05 billion) and the same period last year ($6.81 billion). Growth was driven across all segments, with the strongest momentum coming from the DRAM business, where the company posted record sales and nearly 50% sequential growth in the HBM memory segment. Data center also saw significant growth, with sales more than doubling year-over-year, and consumer markets improved quarter-over-quarter.

The company reported GAAP net income of $1.89 billion ($1.68 per share) and non-GAAP earnings of $2.18 billion ($1.91 per share). Operating cash flow rose to US$4.61 billion, a further improvement from the previous year's US$3.94 billion. Meanwhile, gross margin rose to 37.7% (GAAP) and 39.0% (non-GAAP), while operating profit exceeded USD 2.16 billion, equivalent to 23.3% of sales. On a year-over-year basis, the company's net income nearly doubled and margins strengthened significantly, confirming the positive recovery trend in the memory industry.

For the quarter, the company invested $2.66 billion in capital expenditures and generated $1.95 billion in free cash flow. As of the end of May, Micron held cash and liquid assets of over $12 billion, providing it with a strong financial position for further investment and development. The company also announced a dividend of $0.115 per share, payable on July 22, 2025.

The outlook for the fourth fiscal quarter is no less optimistic. Micron expects further revenue growth to approximately $10.7 billion, which would represent approximately 15% quarter-over-quarter growth. Gross margin could move as high as 42%, while earnings per share should reach approximately $2.50 (non-GAAP). According to CEO Sanjay Mehrotra, the company is on track to deliver record annual results thanks to strong demand for memory products driven by the development of artificial intelligence and compute-intensive applications. Micron continues to make disciplined investments in technology and manufacturing to solidify its position as a leader in memory solutions.

📈 PRESENTATION

At first glance, you might not even notice it. It doesn't present itself to the general public, it doesn't make products you'd normally find on the shelves, and yet its technical know-how is shaping the foundations of modern digital infrastructure. Although its name remains out of the mainstream media, it has managed to nearly double its annual turnover over the past decade, which now exceeds $2.8 billion. Its technologies subtly but profoundly influence the operation of data centres, the precision of medical devices and the reliability of fibre-optic networks that link continents.

From a financial perspective, this 'invisible player' is a prime example of a company that has been going from strength to strength over the long term without much fuss. Annual earnings per share have risen more than 100% since 2021, without significant debt or wild acquisition spree. Instead of drama, it relies on discipline, quality and a very close relationship with customers who can't afford to make mistakes. In the most recent quarter, the company achieved record sales of over $870 million, indicating that its time is now.

📌 Top points of analysis:

1. The technological backbone of the digital world: The company is a key supplier to some of the biggest names in optical networking, data centers and medical technology - yet it remains out of the media spotlight itself. It provides precision manufacturing of modules that enable, for example, data transmissions across oceans or the function of laser instruments in surgery.
2. 📈 Strong growth without debt leverageA: Revenues have increased by more than $1 billion since 2021 - from $1.88 billion to $2.88 billion in 2024. Earnings per share have grown by more than 100% over the same period, without the need for acquisition leaps or significant debt.
3. 💸 Record quarter: In 3Q fiscal year 2025, the company achieved record sales of 871.8 million. The company's revenue for the quarter was USD 871 million - almost 20% more than last year. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.52, again above estimates.
4. 🌍 Manufacturing that never sleepsA: The majority of production takes place in Thailand, where the company has extensive facilities with round-the-clock operations. A single line can assemble an optical module the size of a matchbox with a tolerance of microns - and produce thousands of them a month.
5. 📊 Institutional trustA: Top investors include BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity - a trio that manages trillions of dollars. BlackRock alone holds over 14% of a firm worth over $1.1 billion.
6. 🧠 The stealthy driving force of the AI eraDescription : The company makes key components for fiber optic cables and modules that connect servers in data centers where AI models are trained and run.
7. ⚙️ Low debt, high efficiencyA: Despite robust growth, the company maintains very low debt and a high return on capital. Cash position exceeds $950 million - enough for equity investments, acquisitions and share buybacks.

Company introduction

Fabrinet $FN is a global manufacturing company that provides sophisticated assembly services for precision optical, electromechanical and electronic equipment. Founded in 1999, its official headquarters are located in the Cayman Islands, however, the majority of its operational capabilities are concentrated in Thailand, where it has several large-scale manufacturing facilities. Fabrinet's founder is David T. Mitchell, formerly president of Seagate Technology, who founded the company with a vision to provide leading-edge manufacturing for high-precision technologies.

Fabrinet specializes in "low-volume, high-mix" manufacturing, which means it can efficiently produce small quantities of complex products with high variability. The company does not operate as a traditional consumer electronics brand - its products are not visible to end customers - but it plays a key role in the supply chain for many of the world's technology leaders.

Fabrinet's main areas of focus include optical communications (e.g., optical transceivers, modules, ROADM devices), advanced lasers, sensor technologies (e.g., automotive and medical), and other specialized devices. The company provides services such as design and optimization of manufacturing processes, precision machining, assembly, testing and quality control. Fabrinet's significant competitive advantage is its ability to meet extremely tight tolerance standards - which is crucial for products in the data networking, healthcare or industrial automation industries.

Fabrinet's customers are primarily large multinational technology companies, especially network and data system manufacturers such as Cisco, Nvidia, Ciena and Lumentum. However, Fabrinet does not usually comment on individual contracts due to contractual confidentiality. The company operates globally, but its main manufacturing capabilities are concentrated in Asia - particularly in Thailand - and it has development and logistics centres in the US, China and Israel.

From an investment perspective, Fabrinet is an attractive company for investors looking for stable growth in high-tech manufacturing. The company has consistent profitability, low debt and the ability to adapt to new technologies, including the advent of artificial intelligence, next-generation data centres and increasing automation in the industry.

Historically, Fabrinet has built its reputation on its ability to adapt to customer needs and high quality manufacturing, making it a stable and trusted partner even in periods of market turbulence. Its long-term growth is supported by expansion in high value-added areas such as optical network infrastructure and precision medical devices. The result is a company that is quietly playing an important role in the technology ecosystem while providing investors with an opportunity for value in the high-end manufacturing sector.

Products and services

Fabrinet is a technology manufacturing company that generates its revenue solely by providing custom manufacturing services - that is, not by selling its own products, but by manufacturing high-precision components and equipment for other companies. A key source of revenue is contract manufacturing of complex optical, electromechanical and electronic systems used in areas such as high-speed data networks, data centers, industrial lasers, medical devices and automotive sensor technology. The company operates in a "contract manufacturing" mode, where the customer designs the equipment and Fabrinet handles the entire manufacturing process - from component procurement to precision assembly to output testing and logistics.

The main product areas in which Fabrinet operates include optical communication components such as transceivers, modulators, optical amplifiers and so-called ROADM modules (Reconfigurable Optical Add-Drop Multiplexer), which enable dynamic routing of data in optical networks. Another important area is active fibre optic cables for interconnecting data centres and computing clusters, which enable the transmission of huge volumes of data between servers over short and medium distances.

The manufacture of industrial laser systems - including fibre, semiconductor and solid-state lasers - which find applications in precision materials machining, marking, welding and other industrial applications, also plays a significant role in the revenue mix. The company also manufactures components for high-tech medical applications, such as imaging systems, endoscopy and diagnostic equipment, while meeting the stringent sterile manufacturing and standards of regulatory bodies such as the FDA.

The automotive optoelectronics segment also accounts for a growing share of sales, where Fabrinet manufactures sensor modules for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), optical sensors, camera modules or components for LIDAR. All these areas require extreme precision, miniaturization and high reliability, which is Fabrinet's domain.

Competition

Fabrinet's main competitors include other companies that specialize in the custom manufacturing of complex optical, electronic and electromechanical devices, often referred to as EMS (Electronics Manufacturing Services) or ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) companies. These are players that, like Fabrinet, do not manufacture their own products, but provide manufacturing for technology brands operating in sectors such as data centres, network infrastructure, medical devices or automotive electronics.

In particular, companies such as Jabil $JBL, Celestica $CLS or Sanmina $SANMcan be considered direct competitors . These companies operate globally and offer a similar range of services including process design, assembly, testing and logistics. Like Fabrinet, they work with large OEM partners and often operate in countries with favorable manufacturing conditions - such as Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico or China.

Jabil is one of the world's largest players in the EMS field and has a strong presence in industrial automation, medical technology and communications infrastructure. Its range of services is broader than Fabrinet's, but in some areas - such as precision optics - Fabrinet may have a technological advantage.

Celestica is another major competitor that operates in similar segments, including data centres, optical networks and aerospace. In the area of complex assemblies and advanced optical equipment, it can be a direct rival, particularly when competing for customers in the high-speed networking sector.

Sanmina also specializes in high-mix, low-volume manufacturing, similar to Fabrinet. It has a strong US base and years of experience in manufacturing in sensitive areas such as medical technology and the defence industry. Its diversification into multiple segments may be an advantage, but Fabrinet often has a deeper specialisation in optics and miniaturised optoelectronic systems.

Management

Fabrinet's Chief Executive Officer (CEO) is Seamus Grady. He assumed the position in 2017, replacing company founder David T. Mitchell. Grady brings to Fabrinet's leadership more than two decades of experience in manufacturing management, operations and strategic development of technology companies on a global level. His career has been characterized by an emphasis on operational efficiency, scalability of manufacturing capabilities and building long-term relationships with key customers.

Prior to his time at Fabrinet, Grady held leadership positions at companies such as Sanmina Corporation, where he was Executive Vice President of Global Operations. Sanmina, one of the world's leading electronics manufacturing companies, provided him with deep experience managing large-scale manufacturing processes in various regions of the world, including Asia, Europe and the Americas. Prior to that, he also worked at Lucent Technologies and other telecommunications and electronics companies.

Under Seamus Grady's leadership, Fabrinet has further established itself as a key player in high-tech custom manufacturing, with the company experiencing steady growth in revenue, profitability and operational efficiency. Grady's emphasis on expanding higher value-added services, such as testing, engineering support, and integration of complex optical assemblies, helps to differentiate Fabrinet from its competitors. In an era of rapid growth in data centres and artificial intelligence, it is leading the company towards greater customer focus in these dynamic sectors.

Shareholding structure

The largest shareholder is BlackRock Inc.which as of March 31, 2025 owned approximately 5.07 million shares, representing 14,15 % of the Company's total share volume. The value of this stake was valued at more than 1.18 billion USD.

In second place is The Vanguard Groupwhich holds approximately 4.1 million sharesthat is... 11,43 % of the total. The value of this holding was approximately 955 million USD. Vanguard is known for its passive investment approach and long-term investment strategies that focus on stable, quality companies.

The third largest institutional investor is FMR, LLC (Fidelity Management & Research), which as of the same date owned 1.74 million shareswhich is equivalent to approximately 4,85 % share.

How was the last quarter?

In the third fiscal quarter of 2025, which ended March 28, Fabrinet delivered very strong financial results, exceeding market expectations and its own estimated targets. Revenues for the period were a record USD 871.8 million, representing up from USD 731.5 million in the same period last year. These figures mainly reflect a robust performance in the telecommunications segment, which more than offset the expected quarter-on-quarter decline in data communications revenues.

GAAP net income was USD 81.3 million, slightly above last year's third quarter level of USD 80.9 million. On a per share basis, this represents earnings USD 2.25 compared to USD 2.21 in the same period a year ago. Adjusted (non-GAAP) results, which exclude non-recurring and accounting items such as stock-based compensation expense or restructuring charges from the operating data, provide an even better picture of the company's performance. Non-GAAP net income was thus USD 91.2 million (compared to USD 87.7 million last year) and earnings per share were USD 2.52 compared to USD 2.39.

The results also underscore the company's steady growth in both revenue and profitability. Revenue growth of almost 20% year-on-year is a strong performance, especially given the high industry demand and geopolitical or supply challenges. In his comments, CEO Seamus Grady highlighted the quality execution across the entire team and expressed confidence in the company's ability to continue its performance for the rest of the year and enter fiscal 2026 strongly.

The outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 is also optimistic, with Fabrinet expecting revenue in the range of USD 860 to 900 million. GAAP earnings per share are expected to be USD 2.32 to 2.47, while adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings are estimated to be between USD 2.55 to USD 2.70 per share. These figures signal not only robust demand for the company's core products (e.g., in optical modules and precision manufacturing technology), but also its ability to manage costs and maintain high margins.

From a balance sheet perspective, Fabrinet maintains solid financial health. At the end of March 2025, it had cash and short-term investments of more than USD 950 millionwith total assets of over USD 2.6 billion and equity of over USD 1.9 billion. This strong capital position allows the company to not only weather any fluctuations in demand, but also to invest in further growth, acquisitions or return value to shareholders (for example, through share buybacks).

Long-term results

Company results Fabrinet over the past four fiscal years show very consistent growth across all key financial metrics. The company has increased its revenues, profits and operating margin year over year while maintaining a very disciplined approach to costs.

Revenues and costs

Total Revenue increased from $1.88 billion in 2021 to $2.88 billion in 2024, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15 %. The highest growth rates were recorded in 2021-2022 (+20.4%) and 2022-2023 (+16.9%), demonstrating strong market dynamics as well as the company's ability to scale production rapidly. Cost of Revenue (COFR) grew at about the same rate, which is expected for a manufacturing company with a high proportion of material and operating costs.

Gross and operating profit

Despite a slight increase in costs, Fabrinet maintained a stable gross margin, while gross profit increased from USD 221 million in 2021 to USD 356 million in 2024, an increase of more than 60%. I operating profit (Operating Income) has shown steady growth, from USD 151 million in 2021 to USD 278 million in 2024. This growth has been achieved with a minimal increase in operating expenses, which have remained just below USD 80 million. In other words, the company is sharply increasing operational efficiency while keeping fixed costs under control.

Net profit and earnings per share

Net profit nearly doubles in four years, from $148 million in 2021 to $296 million in 2024. Earnings per share (EPS) grew on average by more than 25% annuallyThis trend shows that in addition to profitability, shareholder returns are also increasing. Diluted earnings per share (accounting for the potential impact of stock awards) were very close to basic EPS, indicating moderate use of stock-based compensation.

Taxes and efficiency

A significant change during the period under review is a significant increase in the tax burden. While in 2021 the company paid only USD 2 million in taxes, in 2024 it was already USD 15 million. This growth is related to increasing profitability and the potential impact of changes in tax regimes, but has not yet changed the overall trajectory of profitability.

EBIT and EBITDA

Fabrinet is generating robust operating cash flow as evidenced by the growth in EBITDA from US$187 million in 2021 to US$361 million in 2024. EBITDA margins remain stable, which is an important signal to investors who track operating performance without the impact of accounting or capital items.

Expectations for 2025

In its third quarter earnings release, published on May 5, 2025, the company said it expects continued strong performance in the months ahead. For the fourth fiscal quarter ending June 27, 2025, it estimates revenue in the range of $860 million to $900 million. While this outlook represents a slight decline from the record third quarter, it is still a very solid level, confirming strong demand for the company's services and products.

On the profitability front, Fabrinet expects GAAP earnings per share to be between $2.32 and $2.47, while adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share are expected to be between $2.55 and $2.70. This difference between GAAP and non-GAAP results reflects standard adjustments the company makes - mainly for stock-based compensation expense and other one-time items. The number of diluted shares is expected to be around 36.3 million.

News

• Fabrinet entered into a significant agreement with Ciena, acquiring a majority stake in its manufacturing business, including its vertically integrated optics business. This partnership is expected to expand with Ciena's upcoming WaveLogic 6 product cycle.
• The company announced the start of construction of a new 2 million square foot building at its Chonburi campus. This expansion will increase production capacity by more than 50% and construction is expected to take approximately one and a half years.

Analysts' expectations

Based on 12-month target prices 7 analysts' average target price for Fabrinet is USD 239.29. The highest target price for FN is 280.00 USD, while the lowest target price for FN is 176.00 USD.

Risks

🔹 Dependence on a limited number of key customers

Fabrinet generates a significant portion of its revenue from a limited number of large OEM clients (e.g. Cisco, Infinera, Lumentum). If any of these partners were to reduce order volumes, change suppliers, or move production in-house, it could have a significant impact on the company's revenues and profitability.

🔹 Concentrated manufacturing base

Most of the manufacturing capacity is concentrated in Thailand. This poses a geographical risk - for example, in the event of natural disasters, riots, infrastructure failures or regulatory changes, production may be disrupted and deliveries to customers may be delayed.

🔹 Technological complexity and quality requirements

Fabrinet manufactures highly complex optical and electronic components with a high degree of precision. Any manufacturing errors, quality deviations or delays in the transition to new product generations can lead to loss of confidence, order cancellations or even legal disputes.

Market opportunities

Fabrinet is in a very promising market segment that benefits from structural technology trends and changes in the global data and communications network infrastructure. One of the most significant opportunities is the rapid growth in fibre optic communications, where the demand for higher transmission capacity, lower latency and more reliable connectivity is increasing as data traffic explodes. This trend is driven by the proliferation of cloud services, the advent of artificial intelligence, the digitisation of industry, the development of 5G networks and the expansion of hyperscale data centres. As a manufacturing partner to the world's leading manufacturers of optical modules and equipment, Fabrinet benefits from its specialization in advanced optical packaging and assembly of complex systems that are key to these applications.

Another major opportunity is growth in high-speed optical infrastructure, particularly as new technologies such as 400G, 800G and, in the future, 1.6T optical transmissions are implemented. The manufacturers of these high-end components, which include major Fabrinet customers, require high-precision, reliable manufacturing that they often do not provide themselves - creating long-term outsourcing potential for companies just like Fabrinet.

The market for production equipment for the semiconductor industry also offers interesting room for expansion. Although Fabrinet is not yet a dominant player in this area, it is gradually expanding its competencies and building a position in a segment that is capital-intensive but high-margin. The growth trajectory of the semiconductor industry in the context of AI, autonomous technologies and smart devices remains strong, and Fabrinet can play an increasingly important role in this framework as a supplier of components and subsystems for production machinery.

Opportunities are also opening up in medical devices and industrial sensors, where there is a demand for miniaturisation, reliability and high precision manufacturing - precisely where Fabrinet has strong technical expertise. Overall, the company is well positioned to benefit from the global trend of shifting the production of complex technologies to highly specialized partners with global manufacturing capabilities. The outlook for the entire high-tech manufacturing services (EMS/ODM) sector is positive and companies like Fabrinet are expected to maintain above-average growth in the medium term.

Fair Price

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Tesla's first public test of the robotaxi in Austin led to many traffic and driving problems, videos from select company drivers showed in the first few days.

CEO Elon Musk has linked Tesla's financial future to autonomous driving technology, and with Tesla's sales in decline, the stakes are high. He said Tesla will introduce the service to more U.S. cities later this year and predicted that "millions of Teslas" will be operating "fully autonomously" by the second half of next year.

Brazilian mining giant Vale enters 2025 with a combination of operational efficiency, disciplined capital management and continued adaptation to volatile commodity markets. Despite year-on-year declines in iron ore and nickel prices, the company has managed to increase sales volumes in all key segments and keep costs under control. At the same time, the company continues to transform its business through strategic decarbonisation initiatives and portfolio optimisation.

Quarterly data shows that $VALE is not just a passive participant in a cyclical market, but an active player capable of responding flexibly to changes in the environment. While the decline in EBITDA and free cash flow reflects pressure on sales and margins, the decline in unit costs, stable CAPEX and consistent balance sheet control point to a company that has a clearly defined strategy and is moving towards long-term sustainability. The first quarter thus sets an optimistic framework for the year ahead, where price conditions are expected to stabilize and operational improvements are expected to continue.

How was the last quarter?

Vale entered 2025 with a solid performance across all segments, confirming its role as one of the world's largest iron ore, nickel and copper producers. Revenues grew year-on-year due to higher sales volumes across all major commodities. Iron ore sales increased by 4% (based on growth of 2.3 million tonnes), copper was up 7% (5.1 thousand tonnes) and nickel by a strong 18% (5.8 thousand tonnes). This growth in volumes was partly offset by a 10% year-on-year decline in the average selling price of iron ore, which reached USD 90.8 per tonne, in line with the decline in the global index for 62% Fe ore.

At an operating level, the company achieved pro forma EBITDA of US$3.2 billion, down 8% year-on-year. The main negative impact was from the decline in iron ore and nickel prices, but this was partially offset by higher volumes and lower unit costs. In the iron ore segment, C1 cash costs (excluding third party purchases) fell 11% to US$21.0/t and the company confirmed that it is on track to meet its annual target range of US$20.5-22.0/t. An even more significant improvement occurred in the copper segment, where total costs fell 63% year-on-year to US$1,212/t. Nickel saw a 4% decline to US$15,730/t (PTVI adjusted).

In terms of capital expenditure, the company spent US$1.2 billion, down US$221 million year-on-year, in line with the adjusted 2025 capital expenditure plan. CAPEX guidance, meanwhile, remains unchanged at US$5.9 billion. Free cash flow generation reached USD 504 million, down USD 1.7 billion year-on-year, driven by lower EBITDA and higher working capital requirements. Net debt at the end of March reached USD 18.2 billion, up USD 1.8 billion from the end of the previous quarter - mainly due to dividend and interest payments on capital.

CEO comment

Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta described the first quarter as consistent and in line with the targets set for 2025. In his comments, he highlighted in particular the progress in cost discipline, which he believes is key to the company's long-term competitiveness: "We are seeing good momentum in cost management - our C1 in iron ore reached US$21/t in Q1 and we continue to see a year-on-year downward trajectory." This development is the result of a combination of operational efficiencies and logistics process optimisation that the company has been implementing across its segments in recent quarters.

Pimenta also highlighted strategic, high value-added projects that it considers essential for future portfolio flexibility and improved operational performance. In the base metals segment (Vale Base Metals), the first results of the so-called "Asset Review" initiatives are starting to be visible, which are designed to improve profitability and focus on core assets with the highest potential. In addition, the company continues to improve its balance sheet through asset-light solutions such as the recently formed joint venture Alianca Energia, which also supports the company's long-term decarbonisation goals.

Outlook

Vale confirmed that its key targets for 2025 remain unchanged, despite continued volatility in commodity markets. Most of the focus is on the iron ore segment, which remains key for the company. C1 cost targets of US$20.5 to US$22.0/t remain in place, and developments in the first quarter - when the firm reached US$21.0/t - signal that the firm has these targets firmly in hand. A combination of stable volumes, improved operational efficiencies and progressive optimisation across the value chain is helping to achieve this.

In base metals, Vale expects continued growth in operating performance, mainly driven by benefits from ongoing productivity projects and portfolio simplification. In copper, the positive trend should be supported by higher by-product revenues, which significantly reduce overall costs, and in nickel the company expects a stabilisation of the cost base combined with a gradual improvement in the pricing environment. This creates the basis for a potential increase in margins in the second half of the year.

Vale also continues to anticipate total capital expenditure of US$5.9 billion for the full year 2025. Project execution is on track with the adjusted timetable and management expects to direct major investments to growth and transformation initiatives with long-term impact. The company has also emphasized its commitment to financial discipline and flexibility in balance sheet management - as evidenced by its focus on generating free cash flow and optimizing its capital structure through asset-light transactions.

Long-term results

Vale's financial performance over the past four years has faithfully reflected the cyclical nature of the mining industry and the company's dependence on global demand for raw materials, particularly iron ore, copper and nickel. While the company achieved record revenues of US$54.5 billion in 2021, there has been a gradual decline in the subsequent years. Revenues fell by almost 20% in 2022, by a further 4.7% in 2023, and the rate of decline accelerated again in 2024, by more than 10% to US$37.5 billion. This development was primarily due to the weakening iron ore prices, a decline in demand from China and a general slowdown in the metals mining sector.

Despite this negative revenue trend, Vale has maintained a relatively stable cost of goods sold level of around US$24 billion between 2022 and 2024. This has allowed the company to partially counteract the decline in margins. However, gross profit still fell from USD 32.8 billion in 2021 to USD 13.6 billion in 2024, a drop of almost 60%. The most significant hit was seen between 2022 and 2023, when gross profit fell by more than 10%, followed by a further decline of more than 23% in 2024.

The company's profitability has also had a significant impact on operating and net profit. Operating profit stalled at $11 billion in 2024, down 22% from 2023 and more than half the 2021 level. Even more noticeable was the pre-tax decline, which gradually declined from more than $29 billion in 2021 to just $6.65 billion in 2024 - a drop of nearly 77%. Net income followed a similar trajectory, reaching $6.1 billion in 2024, down 23% year-on-year and down more than two-thirds from the record year of 2021. Earnings per share fell from $4.48 in 2021 to $1.42 in 2024.

But it's important to note that despite declining revenues and profits, Vale remains a financially robust company. EBITDA in 2024 was $12.9 billion, which despite a 16.9% year-over-year decline represents a solid performance in the context of global commodity price pressure. Taxes also had a significant impact on profitability, with the level of taxes fluctuating significantly depending on the level of pre-tax profits. In addition, the company continues to reduce the number of shares outstanding, with the number of diluted shares reduced from 5 billion to 4.27 billion between 2021 and 2024, helping to maintain shareholder value even as absolute profits decline.

News

Meanwhile, 2025 brings a combination of strategic initiatives, operational optimisation and significant changes to Vale's capital structure. One of the most important developments has been the consolidation of partnerships within Alianca Energiawhere Vale formed a strategic joint venture focused on energy efficiency and carbon neutrality. The move is part of Vale's broader 2030 strategy to reduce emissions and improve the environmental profile of its mining operations through the use of renewable resources and energy efficient solutions.

At an operational level, the company continued to modernising its cost structurewhile seeing significant improvements in cash costs across all key commodities. C1 iron ore costs decreased by 11% y/y to US$21/t in Q1 2025, while all-in costs for copper decreased by 63% y/y to US$1,212/t. This trend reflects the consistent implementation of initiatives aimed at streamlining operations, higher by-product utilisation and tight CAPEX control.

The third significant step was the further reduction in capital expenditure. For Q1 2025, investment was US$1.2 billion, down US$221 million year-on-year. CAPEX remains in line with the annual guidance of US$5.9 billion. This approach demonstrates management's desire to adapt to a volatile market environment while maximizing return on investment. As a result, Vale is profiling itself as a capital disciplined company, able to adapt its growth rate to current conditions.

Another interesting feature of 2025 is the emphasis on "asset-light" solutionswhere the company prefers equity partnerships or divestment of smaller stakes in infrastructure or energy assets. This approach allows Vale to generate additional capital without reducing its control over key commodity projects, while meeting long-term sustainability, return and risk diversification objectives.

Shareholding structure

Vale remains an attractive investment for a number of major institutional investors in 2025, although their overall shareholding in the company is relatively lower compared to some other global miners. Institutions hold approximately 17% of the company's shares, which may reflect both the specificities of the Brazilian market and the historical presence of the state in the shareholding structure. The ownership base thus combines domestic and foreign capital, with retail and state holdings making up the majority of the remaining structure.

Vale's largest institutional shareholders include the US investment company FMR LLC (Fidelity)which held approximately 108.9 million shares as of March 2025, equivalent to a 2.4% stake. The second largest investor is BlackRockwhich holds approximately 1.2% of the company, worth almost USD 494 million. In third place is GQG Partners, an actively managed firm that holds 0.82% of Vale's portfolio.

The number of institutions holding Vale stock in their portfolios currently stands at 673. This confirms the relatively broad interest across the capital market, although most positions tend to be smaller in size. At the same time, it is worth noting that internal holdings by management are virtually negligible, signalling that the public market and strategic investors, rather than insider structures, have the decisive influence.

Analysts' expectations

Based on 12-month target prices 10 analysts for Vale, the average target price USD 12.04. The highest target price for VALE is 15.25 USDwhile the lowest target price for VALE is 9.00 USD.

Fair Price

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⚠ Invest responsibly!

The information in this article is for educational purposes only and is not intended as an investment recommendation. The authors present only the facts known to them and do not draw any conclusions or make any recommendations to the reader.

Read our Terms and Conditions

🚀 AeroVironment surprises Wall Street and the stock appreciates!
Shares of unmanned systems maker AeroVironment $AVAV have shot up by more than 20 % after the company significantly beat expectations on both earnings and revenue. One analyst even compared the company to "the Palantir of hardware." which further boosted growth. Indeed, the results confirm that AeroVironment is becoming a technology leader in the modern battlefield.

📊 Q4 numbers:
Adjusted earnings per share: $1.61 (vs. $1.39 expected)

Revenue: $275 million. USD 275 million (vs. USD 242 million expected)

Net profit: $16.7 million (vs. USD 7.6 million (+176% year-on-year)

Annual sales: 820.6 million. USD 820,820 (+14% yoy) - a record level

🎯 BlueHalo acquisition:
In early May, AeroVironment completed the acquisition of BlueHalo for USD 4.1 billion. The acquisition brings: laser defense systems, space technology and adds complex defense platforms to the existing drone portfolio.

CEO Wahid Nawabi described the move as "strengthening our strategic leadership position" and the markets agree. The acquisition moves the company from pure tactical systems to an integrated defence architecture of the future.

📈 FY 2025 Outlook:
Revenue: $1.9-2.0 billion

Earnings per share: USD 2.80-3.00

This would more than double revenue growth, clearly signaling that the company expects strong demand across defense contracts, particularly in unmanned and laser systems, which are now a critical item in modern conflicts and reconnaissance operations.

Let us also not forget the increase in defence spending by Member States NATO.

📌 AeroVironment is not just a drone manufacturer. Today, it belongs to a new generation of defence industry that combines autonomy, artificial intelligence and high-precision systems.

Does anyone have shares of this company in their portfolio? What's your current opinion on the arms company?

Loop Capital raised its target price on NVIDIA Corporation to $250 from $175, citing that capital spending on the chips that power artificial intelligence systems is growing much faster than investors expect.

🍝 Darden Restaurants (DRI): stable growth in a volatile sector? Evercore says yes.

📈 Why does Evercore have confidence?

1. Long-term stability and brand
   Olive Garden (45% of sales) and LongHorn (25%) are strong brands with a loyal customer base. This allows us to predict sustainable growth without dramatic fluctuations.
2. Innovation without the risk of over-expansion
3. • Using Uber Direct for food delivery
   • Cheaper meal options for the more sensitive segment
   • Optimization of smaller brands (e.g. Bahama Breeze - strategy review)
4. Access to shareholders
5. • Reinvestment in development and share buybacks
   • Despite margin pressure, EBIT margin is expected to grow by 35 bps
6. Strong performance even in a challenging environment
7. • SSS up 4.6% in Q4 fiscal, Olive Garden up +6.9%
   • At a time when other chains are struggling with declining sales

🧠 SWOT analysis of Darden Restaurants:

🔎 Valuation and investment attractiveness:

📌 Target price of $250 is considered conservatively realistic given the growth profile and consistent $DRIperformance .

✅ Who is DRI attractive to?

✅ Yes, if:

• You are looking for a defensive growth title with a dividend
• you believe in brand strength and operational discipline
• you are looking for a company with lower volatility than tech stocks
• you prefer cash-flow positive companies with buybacks

❌ Think twice if:

• you expect rapid expansion or aggressive growth
• you don't want to be exposed to US consumer spending
• you're looking for a cheap P/E (21x is fair, but not cheap)

🗣️ Summary:

"Darden $DRI is not a sexy growth story. It's a steady yield machine - and in a sector where surviving means winning."

"If you want to invest in something that moves slowly but surely - DRI is like Olive Garden: not always exciting, but you can always count on it."

Shares of $AMD have been rising solidly lately, and were up over 6% yesterday. The company's chips are getting better, already outperforming $NVDA in some respects , and major growth is yet to come. I've been buying below $100 myself and am curious to see where the price will go by the end of the year.

Do you think $AMD could grow to $200 this year?