Milan Charvat 1h 8 min read
Google doubled its cloud business, yet still fell 9%. The market is asking who will pay the AI bill Alphabet brought in $127.6 billion in revenue in the third quarter, 25% more than a year ago. Sundar Pichai is boasting that the company is on track for half a trillion dollars in annual revenue. Shares of $GOOG are nevertheless down more than 9% after the market closed, falling…
Amazon $AMZN reports after the market closes today. I’ll take a look at the results and put together an analysis, like I did for Google. Also, I couldn’t help noticing plenty of other significant moves today, some of them easily outdoing Google $GOOG... For example, shares of $NOW are down 26%.…
BINANCE: SUSPECTED LARGEST HACK IN CRYPTO HISTORY Over the past few days, everything has revolved around earnings season. But tonight, news broke that has nothing to do with earnings, and I want you to hear about it directly from me. 📊 WHAT HAPPENED…
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🚨 Amazon just missed — and the stock is down ~7% overnight.
Q3: EPS $1.89 vs $1.96 est. | Revenue $201.9B vs $202.3B est. (+12% YoY). AWS was the bright spot: $46.0B, +39% YoY, fastest in ~5 years. But capex hit $77.3B in one quarter, trailing free cash flow is -$42.4B, and Q4 guidance ($240–247B) came in light at the midpoint.
🟢 Bull case: AWS is re-accelerating (40%+ growth…
Over the past 2 days, all 3 big companies reported earnings: Microsoft $MSFT rose after its results, Alphabet $GOOG lost over 12%, and Amazon plunged as much as 10% right after the market close before recovering some of its losses. Yet it reported the most profitable quarter in its history. To…
Google and Amazon’s nuclear power supplier, Uber’s most profitable year ever, and a gaming engine with a record quarter. All three are reporting their best numbers ever, yet the market is selling them off. Each for a different reason, and only one of those reasons makes sense.
It has raised its dividend for thirty years straight, has low debt, and pays 5.9% a year. Yet it’s valued like a bank in trouble. And the founders have just decided to give up control. Is this a reward for patience, or a trap?
After a long period of underperformance, the healthcare sector is back on investors’ radar. While the broader U.S. market was virtually flat over the past month, several large healthcare stocks posted double-digit gains. Their rise was not driven by one shared trend, but by a combination of better…
Qualcomm is 30% below its peak because it’s losing Apple. The military laptop it unveiled with Anduril was almost ignored by the market. Yet it shows exactly which customer is leaving and which is arriving—and what that will do to the share price.
AI business is accelerating, revenue is growing by more than 20%, yet ServiceNow $NOW is plunging 24%. What’s behind it?
The four best-known U.S. small-cap value ETFs have almost identical names, but each buys a different portfolio. They differ in how they define a small company, their emphasis on profitability, and their costs, which range from 0.05% to 0.27% per year. Over the past five years, the gap between the…
BLACK The ECB has raised rates only twice, and yet eurozone banks are turning off the credit tap at the fastest pace in fifteen years. Which companies in your portfolio will be hit first, who will benefit instead, and where will it show up in earnings before the market prices it in?
$GOOG shares are plunging dramatically! Down 10% right after earnings. Google posted its best cloud results ever, yet its stock is plunging 10%—a case of AI killing Google’s business from within.
Rheinmetall, Hensoldt, and GE Aerospace all carry the same label, and all three are falling. But Ukraine talks realistically affect the profits of only one of them. The market is punishing the other two for something entirely different.
🚨 FED HOLDS — BUT 2 OFFICIALS WANTED A HIKE
The Fed kept rates at 3.75%–4.00% today in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. The statement says inflation "remains elevated" and upgrades growth to "strong." The 10Y yield climbed to ~5.05%, and futures now price ~86% odds of a December hike.
🟢 Bull case: No surprise,…
A competitive advantage that cannot be bought or quickly built is one of a company’s most valuable attributes. It shows up in pricing power, high margins, and stable cash generation even in tougher years. But even the strongest moat does not guarantee a good stock return if investors pay too much…
SK Hynix $SKHY - earnings report analysis
Fundamentally, this is one of the strongest reports in semiconductor history. Revenue topped 100 bil. KRW for the first time, operating margin was 80%, and results significantly beat estimates.
Capacity is sold out through 2029, and the company will return ~100 bil. KRW (~$75 bln) to shareholders.…
The only real estate fund in the world with Dividend King status has raised its payout for the 59th consecutive time this year. Yet the stock is down 14% from its peak, and government bond yields not seen in a quarter-century are scaring off buyers. What are you paying that premium for?
Coca-Cola raised its outlook for the third straight time, yet its stock fell. The numbers show that growth for the “American safe haven” is now driven mainly by Brazil, Mexico, and India—and Brazil’s real just lost nearly 12% in a single day.
The board called an offer of $60.50 per share too low this year. The market is paying less today. Earnings per share are rising, net income is falling, and a single number that most investors aren’t tracking will decide who got it wrong.
A dividend yield above 6% sounds like comfortable income that few stocks offer today. But the same number can conceal completely different businesses. In one case, a stable payout is backed by a thin capital cushion; in another, it is a variable dividend that closely tracks maritime freight rates.…
🚨 SK HYNIX $SKHY JUST POSTED THE AI MEMORY QUARTER OF THE YEAR
Record Q3: revenue ₩104.6T vs ₩98.3T est. (+328% YoY) and operating profit ₩83.3T vs ₩76.7T est. (80% margin!). Add ~₩100T in 2026 shareholder returns and a ₩20,000/share dividend. Shares +10%, Kospi +6%.
🟢 Bull case: HBM4 goes mainstream in Q4, 50%+ of 2027–28 capacity is locked under long-term deals, and management…
🏛️⚡ FED DAY: HOLD OR HIKE? ⚡🏛️
The Fed decides today at 2PM ET. Markets price ~90% odds of a HOLD at 3.75%–4.00% after September's hike. But September CPI ran hot at 3.7% (vs 3.6% est.) and the 10Y yield sits near 5%. The real catalyst is whether Chair Warsh signals a December hike, which futures already lean toward.
Then after the close: $MSFT (est. ~$4.72 EPS / $90.6B rev) and…
Visa $V beat estimates, yet its shares are falling after the results📉
Why? It’s the same old story...a more cautious outlook for 2027. Shares recently hit a new ATH, so investors simply want everything to be “just right.” But there’s a dividend increase🥳
FICO is earning more than ever, and yet it is 62% below its peak. Baidu and Pinterest are falling for the same reason: the market has stopped believing their privilege will last. But only one of them has the numbers to back that up.
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