The war in Iran is bringing uncertainty to the U.S. stock markets. 🇮🇷/🇺🇸

But what should we actually be worried about, and how do I think this whole situation will play out?

Shares of companies that manufacture combat drones, such as $ONDS, $AVAV, $UMAC, $RCAT or even $DPRO, are rising by several percent, some even by 10% or more.

It’s important to understand the perception and significance of the Strait of Hormuz. More than 20% of the world’s oil volume flows through this strait, which will push oil prices higher.

Oil is currently trading between $70–75 per barrel. The largest investment banks warned of prices rising to as much as $120 per barrel in the event of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 🚢

Oil prices are rising and stocks are falling. Why? 📉

Oil prices rise in cases of political crisis, especially when the tension occurs where oil production is highly concentrated.

Stocks fall accordingly because the market fears higher diesel and gasoline prices, which would increase costs for all companies, as we saw at the start of the war in Ukraine. 🇺🇦

Which assets are considered so-called safe havens? ⚓️

Money flows into safe havens in moments of uncertainty, when the market is scared.

Long-term, safe-haven assets are those that retain their value, enjoy high investor confidence, and—most importantly—are not directly dependent on economic growth. 🚀

The most typical safe haven is gold. It has served as a store of value for thousands of years. When there is war, inflation, or panic, investors typically buy gold. 🔱

Another category is global currencies like the Swiss franc, the U.S. dollar, or the Japanese yen. The reason is a strong and stable economy combined with investor confidence.

Government bonds of strong countries—most commonly U.S., German, or Swiss government bonds. Investors trust that these countries will not default despite the crisis and will repay their debts.

And how does it work with stocks? 📊

Stocks tend to be quite volatile and often lose value in times of uncertainty. But some sectors are less volatile and more stable. For example, healthcare, since medicines are needed even during war or crises. Companies like $JNJ or $LLY. 💊

The sector that probably benefits most from war is the defense sector. Shares of companies like $LMT, $PLTR or $BA. 🛡️

Then there are other defensive equity sectors—consumer staples or utilities. ⚡️