💼 How will the presidential election affect the US economy and stock market?
The USpresidential election is around the corner, and with it comes an important question for all of us. How will the election results affect the US economy and what does this mean for our portfolios?
The main candidates for the US presidency are Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump for the Republican Party. Both candidates will face off in a televised debate tomorrow. The election is traditionally held on the first Tuesday in November, this year it falls on 5 November 2024.📊 📈
According to the latest analysis from Goldman Sachs, the policies of Vice President Kamala Harris should have a greater positive impact on the economy than those of former President Donald Trump. 🏦 Harris, if victorious and with Democratic control of Congress, would create an estimated 30,000 more jobs per month than Trump. Her economic plan includes extending tax breaks for the middle class, supporting families with children, raising taxes on corporations from 21 % at 28 % and additional housing incentives. Harris also advocates higher taxes for Americans with annual incomes over $1 million. Her policies target the growth of the middle class, which Goldman Sachs says would slightly boost GDPgrowth in the coming years. 📈
On the other hand, Trump's policy is aimed at cutting taxes, especially corporate taxes, and imposing tariffs on all imports, with imports from China subject to 60% tariffs. His efforts to deregulate and support businesses may look like a growth engine at first glance, but the overall impact could be negative, especially due to tighter immigration policies and trade restrictions. ⚖️ Trump also plans to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 %, which should boost profits for big companies.
However, Donald Trump's campaign has reacted sceptically to an analysis from Goldman Sachs, pointing out that this Wall Street elite "should reconsider its past mistakes", before predicting the future. On the other hand, Harris' team welcomed the analysis and praised the positive outlook for the middle class and working families.
Historically, the stock market has risen under both Democrats and Republicans. For long-term investors, who occupies the Oval Office for the next four years is not as important. What matters is having the right strategy and sticking to it.🏆📅
Who do you think will win the US election and what impact will it have on the stock market?
Well now I think Kamala will win, so we'll see how it goes. Of course I'll be watching and I'll be interested to see how the stock reacts.
I used to think that Trump would definitely win it, but now the situation is changing with Kamala up against Trump and so far, according to some numbers and data, it looks like Kamala has a better chance of winning.
Mostly it was the case that stock markets tended to rise after the election. We'll see how it goes this year, but I think other data will be more important to the market.