Markets need very little — and this particular "little" is quite significant. According to the WSJ, Trump is prepared to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and to postpone the very complex operation of reopening it indefinitely. In other words: a ceasefire yes, but the world's key oil chokepoint remains under pressure — at a time when roughly a fifth of global oil normally flows through it and Brent prices, after a brief calming, are still holding very high.

As investors, we are once again in "headline trading" mode: one leaked report about a possible end to the war, unconfirmed and without details, is enough to trigger a positive reaction in stocks, even though the fundamentals — a closed Strait of Hormuz, uncertain supplies, strained reserves, and the risk of persistently higher energy prices — remain unchanged. This is exactly the kind of moment when it's worth asking whether we're responding to a real shift in reality, or to politically convenient "spin" of the story that tomorrow's headline may rewrite within a few hours.