One year after his self‑styled “Liberation Day” kicked off a first wave of tariffs, Donald Trump has rolled out another round of changes that look brutal on paper: a headline 100% duty on branded pharmaceuticals and a 50% rate on steel, aluminium and copper, with a thicket of carve‑outs and revised formulas underneath. For boards and investors, the real question is not the headline number, but where those details turn into a genuine jump in landed costs and where they function mainly as leverage to push drugmakers and metals groups into US production and price concessions.
In practice, the pressure will fall heaviest on companies that depend on high value finished imports rather than on those that already have deep US manufacturing footprints. Multinationals that ship patented drugs from Europe or Asia, speciality steel and aluminium producers using offshore mills, and import‑heavy distributors with thin margins are at the front of the line, while integrated US based players with pricing power may find themselves in a stronger negotiating position if rivals are suddenly forced to rework supply chains.
1) Pharma: 100% on paper, zero for those who comply
The administration formally imposes a 100% tariff on imports of patented drugs and active ingredients, but at the same time opens a wide path to a 0% tariff.
Companies can avoid the duties if:
they sign an agreement with the government to build new manufacturing capacity in the U.S. within 4-6 months; and
agree to the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) pricing scheme for selected segments (e.g. Medicaid, cash payments).
Other exceptions apply to countries that have trade agreements with the U.S. - EU, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, UK - where base rates are significantly lower (15% or less) and typically also conditioned on MFN agreements. Generics and biosimilars remain out of scope for the time being, the duty does not apply to them and the situation is not due to be reviewed for another year.
Where is the real impact:
Companies that already have an MFN and on-shoring agreement (typically Pfizer $PFE, Eli Lilly $LLY, AstraZeneca $AZN) will have a 0% tariff while fixing price and manufacturing commitments in the US.
Manufacturers who dither will risk rates of 20-100% and will be under intense pressure from investors and the government to get on board.
The most exposed big players:
Global big-pharma with a large share of patented drugs manufactured outside the US - Johnson & Johnson $JNJ, Novartis $NVS, Roche, Sanofi $SNY.
Contract manufacturers and active ingredient suppliers in Europe and Asia, who will be forced to decide whether to invest in US pipelines or accept that US supply will be less competitive.
For investors, this means: negotiating noise in the short term rather than an immediate bump in P&L, but real production reshuffling and price pressures in the US in the medium term. Those with US production and MFN agreements will be privileged in the domestic market.
2) Steel, aluminum, copper: 50% stays, but duty is calculated differently - cargo will go up
Formal tariffs on steel, aluminum and copper remain at 50%, but the way they are calculated is changing: duties will now be based on the US spot price, not the value declared by the importer. The aim is to prevent under-invoicing and "optimization" of duties. The administration itself admits that it expects a higher volume of duties actually collected.
At the same time, the rules for products containing metals are being clarified:
products with less than ~15% steel/aluminium/copper will be exempted from metal duties (only normal duties apply)
products "substantially" made of metals will now typically fall under the 25% band on derivatives, while pure metal products remain at 50%.
Sectors and companies most affected:
Construction and Infrastructure: producers of structural steel, pipe, sheet metal - U.S. Steel, Nucor $NUE, Steel Dynamics - may benefit from more expensive imports and greater domestic market protection.
Automotive and white goods: Ford, General Motors, Stellantis, Whirlpool, Electrolux; higher import costs for steel and aluminum will put pressure on margins unless everything can be reflected in final prices.
Electrical and engineering: Caterpillar, Deere, Siemens Energy (for equipment for the US market), cable and distribution equipment manufacturers, where copper is a significant part of inputs.
In practice, this means: it is more difficult for importers to circumvent tariffs, and for many products the effective duty moves closer to the nominal rate. Domestic metal producers and some construction firms may be relative winners, while industrial metal buyers will feel the cost pressure.
3) Construction and infrastructure projects: more expensive materials, uncertain contracts
A fixed 50% tariff on basic metal products, 25% on derivatives and 15% on some industrial equipment means that:
large infrastructure projects (bridges, railways, energy) will have to rely more on domestic suppliers
imports of some more complex equipment will become more expensive if metal content exceeds key thresholds.
Impact on companies:
Domestic suppliers of building and structural components - e.g. Martin Marietta $MLM, Vulcan Materials $VMC (more aggregates, but often bundled with steel), regional steel mills - benefit from a more competitive pricing position relative to imports.
Large EPC and construction giants - Fluor, Bechtel (non-traded), Jacobs $J or KBR - will need to focus more on optimizing supply chain and contract terms so that tariffs don't destroy margins on fix-price contracts.
What matters to investors is who has long-term contracts with the ability to pass on costs to the client, and who is locked into fixed-price contracts and will "swallow" the duties on their margin.
4) Retail and logistics: duty drawbacks, planning uncertainty
In parallel with the new tariffs, the government is launching a scheme to recover some $160 billion in unjustified duties collected from the already abolished IEEPA tariffs. Some 25,000 importers, including big players such as Costco and FedEx, are waiting for refunds that could improve their cash flow, but the system is rolling out gradually and payments can take up to 45 days from the approval of a claim.
Impact by company type:
Large retail importers (Costco $COST, Walmart $WMT, Target $TGT, Home Depot $HD) - they will get a one-time boost from duty refunds, but at the same time, the new structured tariffs on metals and possibly other categories complicate their cost and pricing planning.
Logistics and courier companies (FedEx $FDX, UPS $UPS) - refunds will help improve the balance sheet in the short term, but the overall complexity of customs schemes increases administrative costs and the risk of declaration errors.
5) Geopolitics and next steps: China, new investigations and the threat of further tariffs
The current wave of changes comes along with two new Section 301 investigations that target "structural overcapacity" and other practices in roughly 60 trading partners. The result may be new country-specific tariffs similar to those that previously fell under IEEPA, only now under a different legal heading.
China has launched its own investigation into US practices, and there is a real risk of further escalation of reciprocal tariffs ahead of the Trump-Si meeting in May. Pro:
Exporters to China (e.g. manufacturers of manufactured goods, agricultural commodities - Deere, Caterpillar, agribusinesses like Archer Daniels Midland), this means an additional layer of uncertainty,
global chains across automotive, electronics or engineering, this increases pressure to diversify production outside China and the US (Mexico, South East Asia, Europe).
What does this mean for investors
For pharma, who has MFN and on-shoring agreements is more important than the nominal 100% rate itself. Companies with U.S. manufacturing and agreements will be relative winners; late responders may come under fire in the short term.
For metals and industrials, expect more of an effective load, even if rates don't formally change. Domestic metals producers and some construction firms will be more protected, but industrial buyers will take another cost hit.
For retail and logistics, duty drawbacks bring short-term relief, but the overall tariff regime is becoming more complex and less predictable, increasing the risk to long-term planning.