No peace agreement was reached! Stocks may face another sell-off📉

This morning U.S. Vice President JD Vance returned from Islamabad (where peace talks were held) without an agreement and with a statement the markets did not want to hear.

Twenty-one hours of talks with Iranian negotiators ended, well… with nothing.

The U.S. presented its final offer; Iran rejected it. Tehran reportedly does not currently plan another round of talks.

Iran’s negotiating position is stronger than it appears

Iran currently holds better cards than the U.S.

Iran controls the strait and continues to limit the number of ships that can pass through it. Former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller said that clearly. Iran possesses highly enriched uranium, controls a key maritime route, and the regime has survived. That gives it time. The U.S., on the other hand, is pushing for a quick resolution.

Vance himself admitted that Iran has not yet committed to refraining from developing a nuclear weapon even in the long term. And without that, no agreement is acceptable to Washington.

Markets are closed today, so we can’t observe a direct reaction. However, Bitcoin trades over the weekend and it weakened by more than 2%. We can therefore expect markets to open lower tomorrow than they closed on Friday after a record week.