Novo Nordisk $NVO is beating Eli Lilly $LLY ahead of important results!

Eli Lilly is still the king of the GLP-1 drug market, but Novo Nordisk took the lead in the oral version of this drug right out of the gate. Oral Wegovy appeared on the U.S. market in early January 2026 and within less than three weeks had already reached 50,000 weekly prescriptions. Overall the drug is already being used by over 170,000 people.

The lead over Eli Lilly $LLY is significant

Eli Lilly only launched its oral product Foundayo in April 2026, about three months later. And although the timing difference isn’t dramatic, the market impact is notable.

Foundayo picked up only 20,000 patients over the same period and recorded just 3,707 prescriptions in its second week of sales, according to IQVIA data, while Wegovy had 18,410 prescriptions at the same stage.

Expectations for Foundayo in 2026 have fallen in the past month from an original $4 billion to only $1.6 billion.

Clinical efficacy speaks clearly

The pill version of Wegovy achieves an average weight loss of 16.6% in clinical trials, comparable to the injectable version. Foundayo from Eli Lilly showed an average loss of only 12.4% in a separate study.

Novo Nordisk also highlights better tolerability. According to medical comparisons, Foundayo was associated with roughly a 14x higher likelihood of treatment discontinuation due to adverse effects than the pill version of Wegovy from $NVO.

Eli Lilly maintains dominance in the overall market

Despite Novo Nordisk’s success with pills, Eli Lilly remains the ruler of the GLP-1 segment. In Q1 2026 it controlled 60.1% of the U.S. market for obesity and diabetes drugs, while Novo Nordisk held a 39.4% share.

Results for $LLY

Eli Lilly reported revenue of $19.80 billion for Q1 2026, a year-over-year increase of 55.5%. Mounjaro generated $8.66 billion for the quarter, up 125%, while Zepbound contributed $4.16 billion in the U.S., up 80%.

Price as a weapon

Both companies have adopted aggressive pricing strategies. Oral Wegovy starts at $149 per month, and Foundayo likewise starts at $149 up to $349 depending on dose. With insurance coverage and coupon discounts, patients can pay as little as $25 per month.

GlobalData estimates that worldwide revenue for the pill version of Wegovy will reach $456 million in 2026, with the U.S. market making up 58%. U.S. sales are projected to rise to $721 million in 2027 and to $1.092 billion in 2028.

Market growth, not cannibalization

The key point is that the pill versions are expanding the overall market. Novo Nordisk reports that most prescriptions are for patients who previously had not used GLP-1 treatments. Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks confirms a similar trend: over 80% of Foundayo users are new to the GLP-1 category.

According to Pharmaceutical Technology, pills will account for only 3% of Novo Nordisk’s total revenue in 2026, but their share is expected to rise to 17% by 2031.

Stock performance

Novo Nordisk shares $NVO are trading around 45 USD and remain under pressure. The first-quarter numbers the company will announce tomorrow before the open will be important.

Eli Lilly $LLY is trading just below $1000. Despite a stronger overall market share, its stock faces pressure due to Foundayo’s slower start.

Nothing changes in my personal strategy and I continue to hold $NVO shares in my portfolio. It’s a long-term run, and that’s what I’m counting on. I’ve trimmed the position several times and don’t plan to buy at current prices. The data and the market reaction after tomorrow’s earnings will be crucial.