Shares of the leading CRM software company have plummeted to multi-year lows, yet 51 analysts still rate the stock a “Buy.” What’s behind this paradox?
If you look at the Salesforce ($CRM) chart for 2026, you’ll get the feeling that something has seriously gone wrong. Shares of the leading customer relationship management platform have fallen by more than 43% since the start of the year, hitting a new 52-week low of around $149 in mid-June —the lowest level in recent years. Yet the company is reporting record revenue, improving margins, and aggressively investing in artificial intelligence.
How is this possible, and what does it say about the state of the software stock market?
Numbers That Don’t Match the Price
Let’s start where every analysis must begin: with the results.Salesforce closed fiscal year 2026 with record revenue of $41.5 billion, up 9.6% year-over-year, and profits rose by more than 20%. In the most recent reported quarter, the company beat analysts’ estimates across all tracked metrics —revenue reached $11.13 billion, up 13% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $3.88 beat the consensus by nearly 24%.
Operating margins—historically a weak point for Salesforce—reached record levels: non-GAAP margin at 34.8%, GAAP margin at 21.1%.
A key indicator of future revenue—current remaining performance obligation (cRPO), or contractually secured revenue due in the next 12 months — rose 12% year-over-year to $29.6 billion.
Agentforce: A Bet on Autonomous AI
The key story surrounding Salesforce today is Agentforce —a platform for deploying autonomous AI agents in enterprise environments. The results so far are impressive:
Agentforce & Data 360 ARR exceeded $1.2 billion in Q1 FY2027 and is growing by more than 100% year-over-year
More than 9,500 paid customer contracts for Agentforce
The platform has processed over 3.2 trillion tokens
Salesforce invested $5 billion in Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI model
In June, the company is acquiring Fin, an AI platform for customer service formerly known as Intercom, for $3.6 billion. This includes the acquisitions of Informatica (data integration) and m3ter (usage-based pricing for AI products). Management has a clear vision: to transform Salesforce from a CRM tool into a comprehensive platform for enterprise AI.
By 2030, the company aims to exceed $60 billion in revenue, with an organic CAGR of over 10%.
"Salesforce is building what we call the Agent-driven Enterprise—an environment where AI agents work hand in hand with people. The company’s position in data and CRM gives Agentforce an advantage that competitors without a comparable data foundation will find difficult to replicate."
Brian White, analyst at Monness Crespi
Why Are Shares Falling When the Numbers Are Rising?
The answer lies on two levels. First, the market does not yet believe in the monetization of AI. Agentforce generates billions in ARR, but investors are asking whether AI agents will replace some of the functions that customers used to pay for. BofA maintains an “Underperform” rating with a price target of $160 precisely because of concerns that the shift to AI will slow new customer acquisition and limit opportunities for upselling.
Second, in Q1 FY2027, management issued annual guidance that fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations. While the company confirmed FY27 revenue in the range of $45.9 to $46.2 billion, the market had expected more. After the results were released, the stock briefly spiked, then continued to fall—and since June 1, it has fallen for 13 consecutive trading days without a break, an unprecedented streak for this company.
Add to that sector-wide pressure on software stock valuations and concerns about layoffs (Salesforce laid off employees in its AI division, MuleSoft, and Marketing Cloud), and you have the full picture.
What Analysts Are Saying
Despite the decline in sentiment, the consensus remains convincingly positive. Fifty-one analysts maintain a “Buy” rating, and the average 12-month price target is around $254—which would represent an appreciation of over 65% compared to the current price.
Average target (54 analysts): $244
Median target (64 analysts): $255
Canaccord Genuity: Buy, target $225
Bank of America: Underperform, target $160
Simply Wall St reports that its fair value model indicates a 57% undervaluation at current prices. Meanwhile, technical indicators signal significant oversold conditions (RSI in the oversold zone).
"The company, with a 21% share of the CRM market—three times that of Microsoft, its closest competitor—is trading today as if the market expects no growth. That is an overly pessimistic scenario."
Seeking Alpha Analytics Team
The Biggest Risk: Time
Salesforce has one of the strongest positions in enterprise software —a loyal customer base across the Fortune 500, unique data assets, and rapidly growing AI products. At the same time, it has alienated some investors with a massive, debt-financed $25 billion share buyback program, which boosted EPS but also increased financial leverage.
The key question is: when will the FY27 turnaround show up in the numbers convincingly enough to win over even the skeptics? Management promises acceleration in the second half of FY2027. If that doesn’t materialize, the current slump may be just the beginning.