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4 factors that will change the market forever, according to a famous economist

Mart Poom
6. 5. 2023
4 min read

In the current situation, few would dare to guess what will happen. The range of opinion runs from "nothing" to "the biggest crash in history". But there is one familiar voice that is not afraid to express its opinion on a regular basis. This time he has openly described several factors that will define the future of the market.

El-Erian knows the factors that will define the market

El-Erian is a well-known commentator on the economy and market events. Quite often he goes into the Fed and their actions that he doesn't think are right in the long run.

Mohammed El-Erian is an Egyptian-American economist and investor who served as CEO of PIMCO, one of the largest asset managers in the world, for 10 years. He was the architect of PIMCO's tremendous growth during this period, when it became the largest manager of global bond funds in the world.

El-Erian is originally from Cairo but grew up in London. He graduated from Oxford University and Harvard, where he earned a PhD in economics. He is widely regarded as one of the world's most influential investors and economists. His wise and often controversial commentary and analysis has had a wide influence on investors, bondholders and policy makers.

Since his departure from PIMCO in 2015, El-Erian has been a consultant at Greylock Partners, a professor at Harvard University, and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He continues to write frequent commentaries, appear in the media, and participate on a number of international advisory bodies, including the UK's Transatlantic Business Council. El-Erian considers himself a flexible and pragmatic thinker who often addresses complex global issues through integrative and new perspectives. And even now he is not left behind, commenting on current events. In his article for the Financial Times ,he focused on several points. He says:

Are you concerned about the economic outlook for 2023? You are far from the only one. Over the past six months, the aggregate opinion of Wall Street experts and analysts has varied from an expected soft landing to a hard landing to... no landing. More recently, the general opinion seems to have returned to a hard landing, with some even fearing a giant crisis triggered by the banking system turmoil.

This range of views primarily reflects the interaction of external developments with policy incompatibilities and inconsistent policy communicationby the Federal Reserve. The latter is unusual for the world's most influential economy with advanced institutions.

And it is not just market narratives that have seen volatility. Movements in key segments of the financial markets have also resembled a roller coaster ride. Take, for example, the two-year Treasury yield, which plays a significant role in much financial activity. It was extremely volatile in March.

Moreover, the Fed cannot serve as a strong enough anchor because it lacks a clear strategic vision and an outdated monetary policy framework. Not surprisingly, several economic experts have admitted that this is one of the most unpredictable periods for the U.S. economy that they have experienced in their careers.

But Erian has a solution. He believes the proper response to this unusual uncertainty is to embrace it and adapt to it. And as complicated as the prospects are, it is possible to specify a set of questions that will steer us in the right direction.

First is the less resilient supply side of the economy, as the world undergoes a transition to green energy, a tight labour market, the reconnection of corporate supply chains and the way geopolitical tensions are reshaping globalisation.

The second issue is the Fed's ability to reduce inflation while limiting the damage to employment and growth and maintaining financial stability, the so-called policy trilemma.

The third is the extent of adverse economic contagion resulting from recent community and regional bank turmoil, a less stable deposit base, and the likely onset of tighter supervision and regulation on bank lending.

And fourth is the increasingly complicated relationship between economics and politics, both domestically (including the U.S. debt ceiling) and internationally (including how national security considerations trump economic ones).

On these complex issues, we all face a large set of likely outcomes. Therefore, we need to change our thinking and approaches to planning away from assuming a dominant baseline scenario with low probability of risk.

Disclaimer: This is by no means an investment recommendation. This is purely my summary and analysis based on data from the internet and other sources. Investing in financial markets is risky and everyone should invest based on their own decisions. I am just an amateur sharing my opinions.

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