S&P 500 ^GSPC
5,088.8
+0.03%
Tesla TSLA
$191.97
-2.76%
Apple AAPL
$182.52
-1.00%
Meta META
$484.03
-0.43%
Nvidia NVDA
$788.17
+0.36%
Microsoft MSFT
$410.34
-0.32%
Amazon AMZN
$174.99
+0.23%
Alphabet GOOG
$145.29
-0.02%

I see that $BABA+0.0% stock is down over 20% in the last year and even though it is a Chinese company I am considering buying it. However, this stock is not that important to me and I would buy shares down to below $72.

Do you have $BABA+0.0% stock in your portfolio and at what price are you overbought?

BABA

Alibaba

BABA
$75.96 -$0.16 -0.22%
Capital Structure
Market Cap
195.5B
Enterpr. Val.
1.3T
Valuation
P/E
14.1
P/S
1.5
Dividends
Yield
0.2%
Payout
0.0%

I already have a small purchase but I'm still waiting because it should go down a bit more no less $BABA+0.0% in my portfolio I definitely want to have 👍 there is a possibility of great appreciation and even if there is more risk it's worth it.

Great, I see it the same way, but not so optimistic.

I still don't know about China. I probably wouldn't put more than 0.5% of my portfolio in it.

I see it the same way, I'm able to put a max of 4% into it.

4% overall to China or a particular baba?

15% ptf. I'm prepared for any scenario, but I'm leaning towards a happy ending. 😁
I'll probably gradually approach 20%.

That's what I call conviction! All the negative scenarios aside, can you give me some insight into the positive? How will Alibaba get back to its higher double-digit growth to earn a valuation around PE 15-25?

The market share is decreasing. But even with this growth, I think PE 15 is fair given the geolocation. Current forward PE=7.5. Even in terms of other metrics, it's brutally cheap (if the numbers are true, which I assume they are).
Great balance sheet that will hopefully be used for buybacks, although this year's buybacks didn't move the price in any way (the amount was ridiculous compared to their capacity - shareholders don't care). Still, I suppose the dividend could increase rapidly, but we're not expecting it again until next year...

Despite the problems in the real estate sector that is reducing the GDP growth outlook for next year, I think they will somehow get out of deflation. They are elsewhere in the economic cycle than the US. High M2 stocks could help, or fiscal stimulus from China, which of course will be financed by debt (new bond issuance in October). In general some minor stimulus could give the stock market the momentum it needs. Capital inflows would follow.

For example, this recent news made me think that the party doesn't really care how the stock market does after all:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-removes-official-after-video-games-rules-spark-turmoil-sources-2024-01-02/

It's also worth noting that I have 5% in $KWEB+0.0%. I wonder if I shouldn't have gone down this "safer" route. It will be a big disappointment if it doesn't work out, but it's a risk I'm willing to take. I'd be very happy for feedback or any challenges to my views - that's how you learn best!

That's the thing I'm asking too, because when I look at the company and I look at that chart, I don't see the chart and I don't see what or why BABA stock is going up.

That's a pretty big position. I don't trust BABA stock that much, and I don't trust China at all :)