Tariffs as a new pillar of U.S. economic policy are starting to show up in hard numbers. According to data from the U.S. Treasury, nearly $28 billion flowed into federal coffers from tariffs in December, bringing the total for 2025 to a historic record of over $264 billion...

That's more than three times the amount in 2024 and clear evidence of how fundamentally trade flows have been reshuffled after the introduction of blanket tariffs. At the same time, tariff revenues have fallen for a second month in a row, and December's figures are more than 10% below the October peak.

Even more interesting is the context: the U.S. trade deficit has fallen to its lowest level since 2009, which suggests that tariffs are indeed curbing imports. On the other hand, even record tariff revenues are far from enough to cover the budget deficit — which exceeded $145 billion in December alone. In other words: tariffs are changing the structure of global trade and increasing government revenues, but they are not a budgetary "game changer" as often politically portrayed. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office has already cut its long-term estimate of tariff revenue by $1 trillion, which suggests companies and trading partners are gradually adapting.

👉 Question for investors: Do you see tariffs more as a long-term structural factor that will redistribute winners and losers across sectors (industry, retail, logistics), or as a temporary shock the market will quickly adapt to? And which specific stocks or industries do you think will benefit most in the long run from this "new trading regime" — and which will lose out?


Tariffs are clearly reshaping trade flows and boosting revenues, but the data show diminishing marginal impact over time. Markets and companies are already adapting, which limits their long-term fiscal power. For investors, this looks more like a structural reallocator across sectors than a true macro game changer.

I think it’ll dawn on them eventually that tariffs won’t make up for all the tax revenue they’ll lose from lower goods sales.

It's finally calmed down and it's not the kind of mess it was in April. It takes some time for it to show up, so we'll have to wait for companies' results to see if it affected them at all.

Companies will get used to it over time and, in my view, Trump will lift some tariffs, so it probably shouldn’t be that big of a problem.

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