Trump's plans are starting to fail. His support in the U.S. is falling rapidly and the president is coming under increasing pressure. These polls confirm it:
Four ultimatums and four retreats
Since the beginning of March Trump has issued at least four public ultimatums to Iran regarding the strait. Each time he warned that a harsh retaliation would follow if conditions weren’t met. And each time he stepped back. Most recently, last Saturday he promised an attack on Iranian power plants within 48 hours. On Monday the deadline was extended to Thursday, and on Thursday at a press conference in front of his ministers he announced a further extension of the deadline by another 10 days to April 6.
His poll numbers are falling
The public is noticing the war, and Americans are beginning to lose tolerance for it.
A poll from March 20 to 23 recorded Trump's overall approval at just 36%, while 62% of Americans disapprove of his performance. Prices and inflation are Trump’s weakest point with voters, rated at minus 39 points, and this indicator is worsening every month.
Pew Research Center, in its survey from March 16 to 22, found that 61% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the conflict. Only 37% approve.
Support among independent voters has fallen especially sharply: only 24% of them approve of Trump's handling of Iran, while 63% disapprove. A week ago it was 30 to 53. Independents are a key group for the November election.
Is a less favorable deal looming?
The longer the war continues and the more Trump's support falls, the greater the pressure will be to end the conflict quickly. And a quick end may mean terms that do not fulfill the original American objectives.
Bloomberg summed it up succinctly: the “rally around the flag” effect in wartime, where a president’s popularity usually jumps, did not appear in this case at all.
For energy markets this means one thing. Until there is a clear agreement guaranteeing the opening of the strait, the geopolitical risk premium in oil will not disappear. And that transmits directly into companies’ results—from airlines through chemical companies to retail.
How do you see it? Do you believe that some agreement will actually be reached by April 6, or should we expect another extension and oil to remain above $100?
Many people say Trump bit off more than he could chew and that it’s only hurting his popularity, which seems to be true. On the other hand, I’ve read that he had no choice because Obama’s deal with Iran was set up so poorly that he basically had to move in. Personally, I think he partly had to go in, and Israel pushed him into it, but he didn’t expect it to drag on like this. He’ll definitely try to end it as soon as possible, if only because of the election that year, which is really hurting his ratings. Haven’t you heard that view?
I would summarize it like this: the diplomatic route is being pursued and a framework agreement is being worked out "on paper", but for now it doesn't look to me like a quick resolution. At the same time, the reality on the ground rather points to continued escalation — the U.S. is moving thousands more troops into the region, and Iran, according to available reports, is trying to call up reserve forces.