What surprised me in the market over the last few days — and what I'm trying to understand 📊
The last few days reminded me again how important it is to remain humble in the market. We all know the basics:
👉 the trend is your friend
👉 it’s better to go with the market than against it
And yet the market can still surprise us.
One of the biggest problems is confirmation bias — we tend to seek information that confirms our view and ignore what doesn’t fit.
Three recent examples that made me think:
Duolingo ($DUOL)
Strong results, basically as expected… and yet a decline.
Why?
Disappointing outlook - the market looks forward. Even good numbers aren’t enough if slower growth is expected.
High expectations - $DUOL is a premium growth stock. For such names, “good” results often aren’t enough.
Multiple compression - with uncertainty about growth, valuations are quickly adjusted downward.
👉 A drop of around -10% and a subsequent partial recovery suggests: it’s not a broken story, but a reset of expectations.
PayPal ($PYPL)
At first glance:
results OK, numbers OK, the stock had been rising
Then the earnings call happened… and a drop of roughly 9%.
Why?
Weaker outlook / tone of communication - numbers alone aren’t enough — what management says about the future matters.
Lingering questions about growth - the market still doubts $PYPL’s long-term growth.
Trust in management - after weak quarters, credibility becomes key.
👉 Main lesson: results aren’t the whole story. Often management commentary decides.
Super Micro Computer ($SMCI)
I was most surprised here.
Yes, AI is booming. Yes, results were strong. But still — +20%?
Why such a strong reaction?
Positioning and short covering - in volatile stocks a surprise can trigger a sharp move.
AI narrative - everything around AI infrastructure is currently strongly supported by the market.
Momentum and liquidity - in a strong trend good news doesn’t just confirm the trend, it accelerates it.
👉 This is no longer just fundamentals. It’s a combination of sentiment, money flows, and story.
What lessons do I take from this?
- The market always looks forward, never backward.
- Expectations matter more than the numbers themselves
- The story influences valuations
- And sometimes the market prices things before the fundamentals do
Most important takeaway:
👉 The market doesn’t have to make sense to me 👉 I must adapt to how it behaves
What has surprised you most in the market in recent days?
You can find the English version of this post on my eToro profile. If you want to follow me there or possibly copy my USD portfolio, I’d be happy!
I feel the same and I also try to look for opportunities and stocks where the valuation is low and the shares have been oversold or the company is just going through a rough patch. However, I’d be cautious with that $SMCI, because there seem to be too many problems there for my taste😃
Right now it's mostly about sentiment and investor mood, but a time will come when fundamentals matter again, and then things can turn around.
Hello, thanks for the article. It’s an important read to reflect on. Nicely illustrated with company examples, but the main points are those at the end, as you wrote. It’s important for investors to keep them in mind, because what we see today is already a reaction to the future. Also, regarding expectations, we see this all the time with quarterly results: often the numbers are decent, but expectations miss the mark and the market punishes it. And finally, the market often diverges from fundamentals. That’s why I always say you can’t precisely pick every bottom or top. Often the current direction may not make sense, so I look at the market long-term. 😊
Thanks again, and if we’re not following each other on eToro, I’ll check out your profile. It’s also my main investment platform.