Markets today are basically reacting to one thing: that a deal with Iran may be taking shape, but no one knows when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will actually resume.
The war in Iran has for almost three months been keeping the world by the throat through high energy prices and fear of inflation — but now a cautious relief is arriving, because there is talk of a possible agreement that would eventually reopen Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG flowed before the conflict. The euphoria is, however, held back precisely by the fact that no one knows the date: until it’s clear when tankers will return to normal passage through the strait, nervousness about energy prices and costs for businesses and households will remain high.
It seems to me that they don’t want to come to an agreement (both sides), and if the Iranians keep demanding those reparations, it’s a complete no-go zone for the USA.
In any case, that deadlock actually suits China too — instead of shipping by sea it’s moving goods by rail, and it has an ideal environment to test the USA–Taiwan connection.
I’d be cautious about that "deal about to fall into place." Over the past month there have already been several mentions of a possible end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: at the end of April an Iranian proposal, in early May more optimistic statements, then a rejection of the terms, and now again a "nearly finished" deal.