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This is the new megatrend. Don't fall asleep and catch this huge wave early. You have the perfect opportunity

Jamie Cameron
24. 1. 2023
3 min read

You would think that everyone would realise the extreme importance of chips. But it's quite likely that what we're seeing now is just the beginning, and there's still plenty of time to jump on the bandwagon!

And it seems that this is not just conjecture. It is only in the last two years that the United States has fully understood that semiconductors are now as important to the modern economy as oil.

Chips are everywhere. In 2021, the average car contained about 1,200 chips worth $600, twice as many as in 2010. Last year, carmakers lost $210 billion in sales because of missing chips. Competition with China has fuelled fears that it could dominate key chip sectors, whether for civilian or military purposes, or even block US access to parts. Which is understandably fuelling a huge hunger for the sector.

The government and companies are now spending billions on a huge effort to build up domestic chip production and secure supply. It's a big bet on an industry that sets the contours of international competition and determines countries' political, technological and military advantage. And this effort looks set to eclipse the classic US main target - oil.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfAyXjRFUJk

"Where oil reserves are located has determined the geopolitics of the last 50 years," the Intel executive said. "Where the chip factories are located is more important for the next five decades."

When oil became the foundation of industrial economies in the 1990s, the United States became one of the world's largest producers. Securing the supply of semiconductors is more complicated. While oil is oil, semiconductors are produced in a bewildering array of types, capabilities, and costs, and depend on a multi-layered supply chain involving thousands of inputs and many countries. Because of economies of scale, the United States cannot manufacture them all itself.

Even more motivation?

And the U.S. is mostly missing the expensive, best chips. Still doesn't seem like a good enough incentive to you that great things will still happen here?

Because US officials are hoping that federal subsidies will lead to factories large and mature enough to be competitive and profitable in the future. "We need Intel to think about taking a $20 billion facility in Ohio and making it a $100 billion facility. We need to convince TSMC or Samsung that they can go from 20,000 wafers a month to 100,000 and be successful and profitable in the United States. That's it."

That's five times. You still don't think chips have huge potential?

TSMC announced in December that it would increase its investment in high-end chips to $40 billion at a plant already under construction on a large site north of Phoenix. Even if the US fails to secure the entire semiconductor supply chain, it has a chance to reverse the recent historical trend of losing leadership in one manufacturing sector after another.

"I don't think we've ever been able to do that: To try to consciously and purposefully regain market share in an industry where we were once the leader but then lost it," said Rob Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, which advocates for government support of manufacturing.

Disclaimer: This is in no way an investment recommendation. This is purely my summary and analysis based on data from the internet and other sources. Investing in the financial markets is risky and everyone should invest based on their own decisions. I am just an amateur sharing my opinions.

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