Labour market in the USA
This week's most closely watched macroeconomic indicators will be the labour market in the United States. According to Bloomberg, it is expected to cool down slowly, especially after the end of Taylor Swift and Beyonce's summer concerts. The agency expects that the ratio of newly opened positions to the number of unemployed people should fall to 1.4. This parameter is one of the key indicators for the Fed to assess the current situation in the labour market. Unlike other central banks, the Fed takes into account not only the price level but also the labour market when making its policy decisions. According to Bloomberg, it is also important to take into account that the strikes of workers in the automotive sector will not be included in the published indicators this week. The intensity and duration of the strikes may have a negative impact on the US market.
ISM manufacturing in the US
The ISM in manufacturing is predicted by the market at 47.9 b. In August, the index reached 47.6 b. According to Bloomberg, companies are preparing for a continued decline in demand so as not to register a surplus of inventories in a possible recession. The ISM price index is forecast to rise to 49.0p from 48.4p in August.
US trade balance
On Thursday, we will hear the US trade balance. The balance deficit is expected to be USD 59.7 billion. The data shows that exports rose 2.2% in August, while imports saw a 1.2% decline. The largest drop in imports was registered in consumer goods (-3.4%), capital goods (-3.1), implying cooling consumer demand and reduced investment by companies.