Have a nice morning,
I've been thinking about big companies lately. There's no doubt they are expensive, but I'm kind of wondering after the way they're climbing up even in January if $MSFT+1.6% $AAPL $META or even $ASML+3.0% will ever go down significantly in the next few years or just march further up. What do you think? Is this just a bubble or not?
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And just with these companies and in this situation, I don't think it's a bubble. ASML may have jumped quite a bit after the results, but FY24 is not supposed to be the best year for this company and the company and analysts are expecting a decline or stagnation. I believe the stock will fall this year and I will be very happy to overbought. The following year 25 is supposed to be a breakout year for ASML in a good way. Google is not at its worst price either. I definitely wouldn't buy, but I would overbought around $120 already. I'd say Google is the cheapest of the top tech stocks.
ASML has been growing revenue and profits by 20% and 25% for the last 10 years, they have a net margin of 30% on equipment that costs 200-250million and has been waiting for about 2 years. It's one of the largest companies in the EU and still expected to grow at over 20% CAGR over the next 5 years. Even at 52w high they are cheaper than the 5 year average on all valuation metrics (PEG TTM is 0.97).
I don't follow the others closely, so I won't comment on them. But it's good to remember that these are the most followed stocks where most of the best analysts would have to be very wrong for people to currently throw too much money at them.
Still, these stocks can be bought at a discount from time to time: ASML 2021-2022 is down about 50%, MSFT 35%, AAPL 25% and META 75%.
For example, $META+2.7% still seems to be very decently priced. I like $AAPL+0.2% the least of the above.
ASML has been growing revenue and profits by 20% and 25% for the last 10 years, they have a net margin of 30% on equipment that costs 200-250million and has been waiting for about 2 years. It's one of the largest companies in the EU and is still expected to grow at over 20% CAGR over the next 20 years. Even at 52w high they are cheaper than the 5 year average on all valuation metrics (PEG TTM is 0.97).
I don't follow the others closely, so I won't comment on them. But it's good to remember that these are the most followed stocks where most of the best analysts would have to be very wrong for people to currently throw too much money at them.
Still, these stocks can be bought at a discount from time to time: ASML 2021-2022 is down about 50%, MSFT 35%, AAPL 25% and META 75%.
I think there will be some correction, how big is the question.