SpaceX is heading for the largest IPO in history, but its financial trajectory looks like something from another universe: after last year’s estimated profit of around $8 billion on revenues of $15–$16 billion, it is projected to post nearly a $5 billion loss for 2025 on revenues of over $18.5 billion. A large part of that decline is explained by the acquisition of xAI — a startup that managed to burn billions of cash in just a few months — and massive investments in Starlink, Starship, orbital AI datacenters and new chip ambitions, while Musk is simultaneously pushing SpaceX’s valuation above $1.75 trillion.

As an investor, I can interpret this figure simply: SpaceX today is not a “finished money-making machine,” but a company in a massive expansion phase where profits are sacrificed for growth and new projects — and an IPO valuing it at Tesla’s level is a bet that this model will eventually deliver the corresponding cash flow.