Visa $V and Mastercard $MA are still moving away from their highs. Visa is already back at last April’s levels!

The high-quality businesses of both companies continue to face market pressure. The shares are trading more than 16% below their ATH.

Visa processes more than 200 billion transactions annually, and Mastercard is similar in every respect. A duopoly with huge competitive advantages, virtually no need for physical capital, and margins most industrial companies could only dream of.

And yet: $V trades today around $308, roughly where it was in April last year. From the all-time high of $375 in June 2025, that’s a decline of more than 16%.

$MA is in a similar position. From the August record of $602, the shares fell to roughly $504 today, a drop of 16.5%.

S&P 500 meanwhile has strengthened significantly over the past twelve months.

What’s going on?

We can break the situation into 3 main events

1.

The first came last June, when the Wall Street Journal published a report that Amazon $AMZN and Walmart $WMT were exploring the possibility of accepting payments via cryptocurrencies (stablecoins) and thus bypassing traditional payment networks. The market reaction was immediate. Visa lost more than 7% in a day, Mastercard over 6%, and more than $60 billion disappeared from the market capitalization of both companies during a single session. The revenue shortfall would be measured in billions.

2.

In September 2024 the DOJ sued Visa for anti-competitive behavior in the debit card market, alleging the company systematically pushed back alternative networks. Visa defended itself and the court dismissed the complaint, so the case continues. The expected trial date is estimated for 2027 or 2028, which means years of legal uncertainty for investors.

3.

Visa reported revenues exceeding $36 billion in the last fiscal year with a net margin around 54%. Mastercard reported Q4 2025 EPS of $4.76, beating analysts’ estimates by nearly 13%. Both companies are massively buying back their own shares.

Opportunity or trap?

Banks such as HSBC $HSBC and Bank of America $BAC at the end of 2025 raised the rating on both stocks precisely because they are trading at unusually low premium valuations compared to their historical norms.

The threat of payments via stablecoins may not be as existential as it looks at first glance. Visa itself launched USDC settlement on the Solana blockchain and is building infrastructure for payments via stablecoin wallets.

Still, a real risk exists. If large retail chains switch to their own payment infrastructure, the drop in volumes would be noticeable. And if the DOJ (Department of Justice) wins the lawsuit, pressure on fees could impact the business models of both companies.

Do you hold any of these stocks?